What Factors Affect Present Value of a Lump Sum?
According to the number of uncertain factors, the sensitivity analysis method can be divided into single factor sensitivity analysis method and multi-factor sensitivity analysis method.
One-factor sensitivity analysis
Right!
- Chinese name
- One-factor sensitivity analysis
- According to
- What is the number of uncertainties per change
- Investment
- 15000
- Analytical method
- Partial Differentials Similar to Mathematical Multivariate Functions
- According to the number of uncertain factors, the sensitivity analysis method can be divided into single factor sensitivity analysis method and multi-factor sensitivity analysis method.
- The so-called single-factor sensitivity analysis method refers to the analysis of the impact of changes in a single uncertain factor on the economic effect of a solution. The analysis method is similar to the partial differentiation of a multivariate function in mathematics, that is, when calculating the influence of a change in a factor on an economic effect indicator, it is assumed that no other factors are changed. [1]
- 1. Determine analysis indicators: Various economic effects evaluation indicators, such as net present value, net annual value, internal rate of return, and investment payback period, can be used as indicators for sensitivity analysis.
- Since the sensitivity analysis is based on deterministic economic analysis, in general, the sensitivity analysis indicators should be consistent with the indicators used in deterministic economic analysis, and should not be established beyond the scope of the indicators used in deterministic analysis. index. When there are many indicators used in deterministic economic analysis, sensitivity analysis can be conducted around one or several of the most important indicators.
- 2. Select the uncertain factors that need to be analyzed and determine the range of changes of these factors. [1]
- Example: The cash flow of an investment scheme is shown in the table, and the data is estimated based on forecasts. Certain factors are uncertain in the future, and investment amounts, operating costs and product prices may all change within ± 20%. i0 = 10%, without considering income tax, sensitivity analysis is performed on three uncertain factors (unit: 10,000 yuan). [1]
- This one-factor analysis method is incomplete and easily leads to underestimation of the economic evaluation risk consequences, which will bring losses to investors.
- The single factor sensitivity analysis must assume that other factors remain unchanged when calculating the impact of certain uncertain factors on the project's economic benefits. In fact, this assumption is difficult to hold. There may be two or more uncertain factors changing at the same time. At this time, single-factor sensitivity analysis is difficult to accurately reflect the project's risk-taking situation, so multi-factor sensitivity analysis must be performed.