What Is a Non-Farm Payroll?

Non-agricultural data refers to the three values of non-agricultural employment, employment rate and unemployment rate. Divided into previous values, expected values, and published values. As the name suggests, it is a data indicator that reflects the employment status of the non-agricultural population in the United States.

Non-farm data

Non-agricultural data refers to

Non-agricultural in the US June 2009

Non-agricultural data is published with caution before the data is released.

Non-agricultural data can greatly affect the dollar value of money markets. A vibrant

Anyone who has worked in the precious metal market knows that non-agricultural influence on precious metals, especially the precious metal gold and silver prices, is huge, and prices often fluctuate significantly before and after the release of data. In order to make investors better profit in non-agricultural, we will next analyze the impact of non-agricultural data on precious metals.
First we need to understand what nonfarm is. As the name implies, non-agricultural refers to the value of the non-agricultural employment population. As the world's largest economic power, we refer to non-agricultural values usually in the United States. As a non-agricultural employment population, non-agriculture includes the employment population of manufacturing and service industries, and also reflects the current level of economic development in the country, because manufacturing and service industries are the secondary and tertiary industries, and their employment The number directly reflects the consumption level of the country. If its value becomes smaller, it means that the productivity of the country's enterprises has fallen, the economy has entered a depression, the level of people's consumption has fallen, and the market has fallen into a highly sensitive period. On the contrary, when the value increases, it indicates that the society and economy are good, the productivity of the enterprise is high, the consumption power of the people is enhanced, and the market has become highly active. But what about his impact on precious metals?
The US non-agricultural data is released together with its unemployment rate data. The two data complement each other and often achieve more results with less effort. The above three aspects show that the US non-agricultural data is closely related to the country's consumer market and the degree of economic development. Therefore, an increase in the value of non-agricultural data indicates that the US economy is improving, which is positive for the US dollar, and negative for gold and silver. Conversely, if its value is reduced, it indicates that the US economy is in a doldrums, and it is naturally negative for the US dollar and positive for gold and silver.
However, we can often see that the non-agricultural data has three values: the previous value, the predicted value, and the actual published value. The previous value is the actual value that we know released last month, which is a basis for this data. The predicted value is the market on this basis, based on the economic data of the United States for one month to infer the quality of its economic development, to make a numerical prediction of the non-agricultural data coming later, the predicted value represents the market Expect. Therefore, if we want to judge the market response based on the actual published value, we must compare the difference between the actual published value and the predicted value, and further judge the price trend of gold and silver. In short, when the actual published value is greater than the predicted value, bullish gold and silver; when the actual published value is less than the predicted value, bullish gold and silver.
Take this month's non-agricultural data (2013.5.3) as an example. When the data is released, the market starts to warm up its expectations. After the data is released, the actual data is much larger than the predicted value. The price of silver began to accelerate, but then resumed its normal trend after that day. Therefore, we also need to know this economic data. ^[3]

influences

How will the fundamental factors affect the next trend? The fundamental trend of the US dollar is fundamental, and the main factor affecting the trend of the US dollar is US economic data. The most important US economic data is non-agricultural employment data. So how do ordinary investors cope with the shock and impact of non-agricultural data on the financial market? Next, I will give some tips on how the price of gold can affect the impact of non-agricultural data in combination with my experience in combating non-agricultural data.

First of all, we must have a clear understanding of the positioning of the relationship between gold and the US dollar. Because gold is priced in US dollars, and because the Jamaica agreement kicked gold out of the currency history arena, the originator was the United States, and because the United States has more than 8,000 gold reserves. Tons rank first in countries and organizations. Therefore, the trend of the US dollar has always been the weathervane of gold. The historical and traditional relationship between the two is negatively correlated. When the US dollar is strong, gold behaves very weakly. This has led to the rise of gold from more than 500 US dollars to a historical high of 1032 US dollars. However, we have also seen that gold and the US dollar have sometimes been positively correlated since the outbreak of the financial crisis. The positive and negative trends have made ordinary investors lose reliance on the trend of gold prices.

Second, the impact of U.S. non-agricultural data on the US dollar is transmitted to the gold market, and the amplitude of the two will certainly have inconsistent amplitudes. Therefore, the results of the U.S. non-agricultural data will first affect the trend of the US dollar, and at the same time will have a major impact on the foreign exchange market . In terms of the trend of gold, I think it is almost a simultaneous passive analysis of wave technical analysis. This means that it is too late to enter the market when non-agricultural data is released. At the same time, according to the quality of the data, the direction and market entry of gold trading are also delayed. Therefore, it is recommended that you enter the market before the data is released. After the announcement, it is often full of shocks and induces shorting. In addition, the instantaneous sharp fluctuations after the data are released cause traders to increase their trading spreads, which makes traders pay a higher cost. Closing is extremely difficult.

Third, the impact of data on the price of gold involves the basic impact of the trend, that is, whether the news affects the price or the price confirms the news. It is more important not to discuss that here. The impact of non-agricultural data on gold prices is definitely there. When uncertain data on non-agricultural data changes, we must first look at how the trend of gold itself is judged. Combining the fundamental factors and technical trends that affect the price of gold, I think Prior to the release of non-agricultural data, it is critical to consider the technical impact, that is, the position of the technical gold price is crucial. Any news will be confirmed in technology trends. The role of technical analysis is to reveal and warn the future trend in advance. After the non-agricultural announcement on the news, the trend is only confirmed or corroborated.

Fourth, before the data is released, analyze the gold price for a longer period, such as comprehensive analysis from the monthly and weekly and daily lines, to establish where the current trend lies in a longer period. For example, the non-agricultural data gold price to be announced on the evening of June 4 is near 1,200 US dollars, this position is near the historical maximum of 1,248 US dollars, and it is near the new historical high adjustment position of gold, which determines that the general trend is still bullish. At the same time, there is a need for more adjustments when there is no breakthrough of the historical high of $ 1,248. Secondly, we establish a key position of support of $ 1198 and $ 1187, and $ 1166 in terms of long-term trends. With these positions as the basis, for the market fluctuations after the release of non-agricultural data, we generally will not always consider longing for the existing adjustment of thinking, because the Japanese K-line yesterday was a huge overcast callback, and the main tone should be Adjustment, short selling is the main choice. With this direction, sufficient vigilance will be given to the shocks following non-agricultural data.

Fifth, of course, the data has little effect on the trend of the gold price. The situation of each investor is different. Different investors and investors with different positions should have different choices, including the psychological quality is mainly trading psychology. Whether the quality is stable or not is related, non-agricultural data will not determine the general trend of gold. Therefore, small funds, prudent investments, investors with large positions, and investors who have locked positions can choose to wait and see; ultra-short-term investors can take a two-handed approach to hold key support and resistance, and see non-agricultural breakthroughs after Direction, breaking in that direction will operate in which direction. One of the difficulties here is the temptation of the market. I think that to overcome this market difficulty, we must have backhand thinking and preparation. Once the direction is wrong, the backhand is a way to seize the benefits of relatively large fluctuations. Of course, you can continue to make mistakes and then stop loss. Investment is to obtain a certain profit with appropriate risk, but each time the loss is less than the profit. ^[4]

Regarding the impact of non-agricultural data on the price trend of fried crude oil, remind everyone of crude oil investors to remember:

Non-agricultural data was better than expected, the US economy improved, the dollar rose, crude oil fell.

Non-agricultural data worse than expected, the US economy deteriorated, the dollar fell, crude oil rose.

Non-agriculture affects the price of the US dollar, and all financial products related to the price of the US dollar will be greatly affected.

From a macro perspective, the US dollar and crude oil are negatively related. That is, if you say that the positive US dollar is negative for crude oil, the reason is simple. Because the pricing power of international crude oil is in the hands of Americans, they use the US dollar to price crude oil, so the dollar rises. Bearish crude oil. ^[5]

Foreign exchange settlement on August 9, 2010: Weak non-agricultural data, US dollar continues to fall ^[6]

On August 6, the pound oscillated up. The British government plans to allow local governments to sell electricity generated from renewable sources to the national high-voltage transmission line network. Chris Huhne, Minister of Energy and Climate Change, is preparing to lift a 34-year ban that allows municipalities to supply electricity from small-scale green projects to the grid, providing incentives for local governments to invest in renewable energy.

According to data released by the British Bankruptcy Service on the 6th, the number of personal bankruptcies in England and Wales in the second quarter increased by 5% year-on-year, as people are still dealing with personal debt. There were 34,743 personal bankruptcies in England and Wales in the second quarter. The data also showed that there were 4,080 mandatory company liquidation cases in the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%.

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 6th showed that the UK's July industrial product prices rose very little month-on-month, and the input production prices showed the largest decline in a year. In July, the PPI output price index rose 0.1% month-on-year and 5% year-on-year, the smallest annual increase since March. Economists expect the median to increase 4.9% month-on-month. The prices of petroleum products, alcohol and tobacco were the main drag on the decline in the PPI output index, while the prices of food, textiles and clothing were the main upward pressures. At the same time, the annual growth rate of textile and apparel output prices continued to accelerate, reaching 1.9%, the largest increase since the record began in 1998. After excluding food, beverage, tobacco and oil prices, the core PPI output index rose by 0.2% in July and increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and economists expected the median to rise by 0.1% in the month and 4.5% in the year. At the same time, the input price index of raw materials and fuels fell by 1% in July and rose by 10.8% year-on-year, the largest monthly decline since July 2009. Economists expect the median value to fall by 0.5% and 11.4% annually.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 6th showed that the UK s manufacturing output growth in June was lower than expected, while industrial output values fell surprisingly month-on-month due to oilfield summer maintenance. However, the Bureau of Statistics believes that the data will not cause any correction of the initial GDP value in the second quarter. In June, the output value of manufacturing industry rose 0.3% month-on-year and 4.1% year-on-year, and economists expected the median value to rise 0.4% month-on-year and 4.1%. In May, the output value of the manufacturing industry increased by 0.3% month-on-year, and increased 4.2% year-on-year after downward revision. Industrial output fell by 0.5% in June and increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and economists expected the median to rise by 0.1% in the month and 1.9% in the year. Industrial output value rose 0.7% in May in May and increased 2.5% annually after downward revision. The value of oil and gas output in June fell by 6% month-on-year and 10.9% year-on-year, which was the largest month-on-month decrease since August 2009, and the largest year-on-year decrease since September 2009.

The British National Institute for Economics and Social Research (NIESR) said on the 6th that the pace of economic expansion in the United Kingdom was slower than the three months ending in June for the three months ending July, and that with the gradual effect of fiscal austerity measures, the economy Growth may slow further. NIESR estimates that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the three months ending July, which was lower than the 1.1% in the three months ending June, which was the fastest growth rate in more than four years. This result is generally consistent with the survey data of other agencies. Among them, the purchasing managers' index showed that the expansion of the service sector, which dominated the UK economy in July, fell to its lowest level since June 2009, and the growth rate of the manufacturing sector was also continuous. The second month slowed. NIESR emphasized that the UK government's commitment to save 113 billion pounds in expenditure over the next five years will dampen economic activity, so the agency warned that those who expect economic output to quickly rebound to pre-crisis levels are likely to be disappointed. NIESR said: "We expect that GDP growth will slow in the coming months as the impact of fiscal consolidation measures gradually infiltrates. Economic activity may remain sluggish for some time to come, and we believe that by 2012, economic output It will not exceed the peak level in early 2008. "The data by sector shows that industrial growth has continued to slow, and after accelerated expansion in the previous three months, the growth rate of the construction and public service industries has gradually cooled. However, the output of the agricultural sector has continued to grow, agricultural economic activity has even accelerated, and the private sector service industry has also shown an upward trend. NIESR confirmed that its director, Martin Weale, was not involved in the preparation of this report. Martin Weale is a member of the Bank of England's (Boe) Monetary Policy Committee. MPC maintained key interest rates and the size of its bond purchases at its policy meeting on the 5th.

The weak employment data released by the United States has raised investor concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery. As a result, the British stock market closed down on Friday (August 6). The British FTSE100 index closed down 33.39 points, or 0.6%, to close at 5,332.39 points. During the session, it once reached a high of 5,408.06 points, but the closing failed to maintain the important psychological barrier of 5,400 points. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) show that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States fell by 131,000 in July, exceeding the expected decrease of 65,000, the second consecutive month of decline; private sector employment increased by 71,000, which is expected to increase by 9 Ten thousand people. Bank stocks led the decline, with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) closing down 1.7%, Lloyds Banking and HSBC (HSBC) down 3.0% and 1.1%, respectively. Jimmy Yates, director of the stock market at CMCMarkets, said that concerns over a slowing US economic recovery have temporarily replaced concerns over the European debt crisis, and uncertainty is weighing on the stock market. Yates added that all investors are paying attention to what the Federal Reserve will do to maintain the economic recovery.