What Is Economic Forecasting?

Economic forecasting is the estimation and estimation of future scenarios of economic phenomena. According to the history and current situation of the economic development process, scientific prediction methods are used to reveal the development laws of economic phenomena and the interconnections between various economic phenomena, and to point out the future development trends and possible levels of economic phenomena. The contents of economic forecasts are very broad: first is the forecast of the domestic economic situation, such as production development trends, growth rates, economic structure, price changes, population employment, fiscal revenue and expenditure changes, the supply, production, and sales of various products. At the same time, it is necessary to predict the international economic situation, such as international economic fluctuations and changes in the international market. ^[1]

Economic forecast

Economic forecasting is science and it has

Economic forecast

Future-oriented

Generally divided into three categories:

According to the scope of the forecast, there are national economic forecast, corporate economic forecast, sectoral economic forecast and

Generally divided into qualitative prediction methods and quantitative prediction methods. The first method, such as expert surveys,

Generally includes four stages:

Collect and analyze various data required for prediction;

Carry out various prediction calculations and propose preliminary predictions of contours;

Hold a prediction and comment meeting so as to play the role of brainstorming and collective judgment;

Supplement and revise the forecast and issue a formal forecast report. The above process constitutes a forecasting process, which is repeated cyclically. Such a cycle is generally twice a year, and a forecast report is provided about every six months.

The problem to be explained in the plan is what measures and actions should be taken to change the existing conditions and make arrangements and deployment for the future to achieve the intended purpose. The problem to be explained in the forecast is that under certain conditions, if no measures and actions are taken or after certain measures and actions are taken, what kind of changes will be estimated in the future. The plan is to be implemented or implemented. The forecast is not implemented Or implementation issues. But plans and forecasts are all about the future, and they all depend on judgment. A scientific plan is based on predictions. Forecasts serve the improvement plan, as shown in:

Provide information about the future for the preparation of plans;

Used to review the prepared plan and explain whether it is likely to change in the future

Because people's will and activities are involved in the economic process, economic forecasts cannot always be accurate. Its accuracy has a gradual improvement process. The effect of prediction cannot be neglected simply because the result of the prediction is inaccurate or very inaccurate; its effect has actually been shown in the analysis process. Nor can one use the premise of providing only a reference as an excuse to mistakenly believe that the accuracy of the prediction is poor. The correct attitude is to start with the analysis of prediction errors, find out the reasons for prediction errors or poor quality, improve data, theory, models and methods, computing technology and other links and their coordination, and strive to improve the accuracy of prediction. Publicity and explanation of the role of forecasts should be made. On the basis of improving the accuracy of forecasts, people should gradually increase their trust in economic forecasts.

Basic economic forecast information

Author: Xu Jianzhong, deputy editor editor Zheng Zhangjuan

ISBN: 7-81073-251X

Publication date: 2002.03

Economic forecast ^[2]

Edition: 1 edition

Folio: 16

Binding: paperback

Introduction to Economic Forecast Content

This book takes Marx's philosophy and political economics as the basic theoretical foundation, and mainly uses qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. It systematically discusses the basic theories and methods of economic forecasting. A chapter on the selection and evaluation of economic forecasting cases is added at the end of this book to illustrate the practical application of economic forecasting.

This book can be used as a textbook or teacher's reference book for students majoring in economics or management in colleges and universities. It also has reference value for scientific research technicians and enterprise management personnel.

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