What Is the Historical Price of Gold?

The gold price chart refers to the latest price of the global international gold price. The global gold price index is the same. No organization or individual can control its rise and fall.

Gold price chart

Medium and long-term

1.Pendulum principle

2.Water bed principle

3. Grasp the market focus

Because of the outlook for global economic growth and

Due to the safe-haven function of gold, the price of gold has risen during periods of intense political turmoil. For example, the disintegration of the Soviet Union on August 19, 1991, the price of gold soared by $ 10 within one hour (based on one ounce, the same below); when the political situation was stable, the demand for safe-haven gold prices weakened and gradually returned to the original level. Another example is the Gulf War in 1992, where the price of gold rose above $ 400. After the war was under control, the price of gold weakened. On the day of the 9/11 incident, gold rose sharply by $ 17. The previous day, the price of gold was $ 276, an increase of 6.22%.

Since 9/11, international terrorism has become a topic of focus. When Bush took office in 2001, he released a list of seven "evil countries": Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya, Syria, Russia, and China. The United States invaded Afghanistan in the name of counter-terrorism, and established permanent military bases in central Asia (such as Kyrgyzstan), which radiated the necessary deterrent forces to Russia, China, and India; it captured the world more firmly after the occupation of Iraq The largest source of oil, and as a springboard to combat Iran, the Iranian nuclear issue has clouded the Middle East war. The situation in other regions, such as the situation in Palestine and Israel, the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and the North Korean nuclear issue, are also in an unstable state. With the cooperation of 12 aircraft carrier groups, the US mainland has been completed as a command center, and rapid strike forces can be launched in any corner of the world in the shortest time Military deployment. The United States Pentagon acknowledges that there are 725 overseas military bases, in fact, including more than 1,000 informal or cooperative. In his inaugural speech during his second term, Bush bluntly put forward "to seek freedom worldwide and end tyranny in every corner". Therefore, in the long run, due to the upgrade of US unilateralism and global expansion strategy, future energy The competition has intensified further, and it is foreseeable that the risk aversion function of gold will be further strengthened.

In 2005, the sensitivity of gold prices to individual terrorist events was greatly reduced. Terrorist markets in the Middle East have become accustomed to them, and they have been replaced by events of a continuing international influence. For example, in February 2013, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks and continued nuclear weapons development. When the Iranian nuclear facility exploded, the price of gold rose from US $ 410 to US $ 447 within a month, an increase of nearly 10%. With the softening of the U.S. tough attitude, the event turned around, the focus of the market shifted from the nuclear crisis to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the price of gold began to gradually decline. It can be seen that after the end of the Iraq war and Libya's "surrender", Iran, as the nail of the United States in the Middle East, and the nuclear issue of North Korea, which has always been regarded as an evil country by the United States, are the main factors affecting the atmosphere of the future international situation.

Gold price chart economic factors

1. USD trend

Because gold is priced in US dollars, a decline in the US dollar means an increase in the price of gold, and gold and the US dollar are basically negatively correlated, with a correlation coefficient of about -0.9 (see chart).

The US dollar index, which reflects the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, has fallen from a high of 120.40 in February 2002 to a low of 80.39 in December 2004, and has accumulated a decline of 1/3 in just three years. The biggest reason for the continuous decline of the US dollar index is the increasingly prominent economic structural problems in the United States. Since the 1980s, with the release of Asia s huge productivity, the global economic structure has undergone tremendous changes. Asian countries have gained the status of world factory by virtue of the huge advantages of their labor force. The major components of the US economy have also successfully served the manufacturing industry. industry. But as the absolute advantage of the United States in the tertiary industry gradually lost, and the "consumerism" that Americans believe in (consumerism refers to a way of life: the purpose of consumption is not to meet the actual needs, but to continuously pursue being Satisfaction of created and stimulated desires. In other words, what people consume is not the use value of goods and services, but their symbolic meaning) but has expanded following the development of financial markets in the past two decades The national reserve ratio dropped from 10.3% in the 1970s to 5.5% in the 1990s. The US consumer sector accounts for up to two-thirds of the entire economy. Its consumption capacity far exceeds domestic production capacity, and the current account caused by the import of a large number of consumer goods The deficit must be made up by the capital account surplus. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, the US current account deficit in 2005 is expected to account for 5.8% of GDP.

On the other hand, the general government fiscal deficit in the United States will account for 4.4% of GDP. According to a report released by the US Treasury Department, as of the end of September 2004, the total debt of the United States to various types of foreign creditors has reached 6.494 trillion U.S. dollars, with an average of more than 20,000 US dollars of foreign debt per American. According to Goldman Sachs Group economists estimate that by 2006, the U.S. foreign debt will account for 46% of its gross domestic product. The International Monetary Fund states that such a high proportion of foreign debt is unprecedented for a major industrial country and is likely to cause Panic about the depreciation of the dollar and the chaos of global exchange rates. In the next four years, the debt burden and social security expenditures that the U.S. government must begin to repay will be as high as $ 53 trillion, and if the entire debt of the federal, state and local governments is allocated to each taxpayer's family, it will reach a record. Over $ 470,000. Statistics show that in 2012 the US tax was 3 trillion U.S. dollars, and the interest paid by the U.S. government for debt over the same period exceeded 1 trillion U.S. dollars.

The huge double deficit of the United States must be maintained by external financing. The United States has always been an ideal place for international capital investment due to its outstanding economic strength and military international influence. The United States absorbs nearly one-sixth of the total savings in the rest of the world, or about $ 2.8 billion a day. The largest provider of these funds is the Asian countries with large trade surpluses. (Pictured) From the end of 2001 to September 2004, foreign governments accumulated a total of US $ 1.4 trillion in official reserves (see diagram), funding 43% of the US current account deficit of US $ 1.318 trillion. When a person's debt accumulates above his ability to repay, his personal credit will inevitably drop. To continue financing, he must pay a higher cost of capital. With the intensification of U.S. debt risks and the continuous decline in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, countries providing financing to the U.S. face huge risks. Since 2012, it has been reported that Russia, South Korea and the Bank of Japan will adjust the proportion of US dollar assets in foreign exchange reserves. According to bank data, Asian banks and central banks have reduced the proportion of US dollar deposits, from 81% in 2001 to 67% in 2004, and OPEC member countries have reduced from 75% in 2001 to 61.5% in 2004. Unless the United States raises interest rates to make returns higher than exchange rate losses, the dollar system will be in danger of collapse once foreign investors begin to sell off US bonds in large quantities. The above situation is very similar to the dollar crisis of the sixties and seventies. However, the latter is only about $ 250 for 10 years in terms of purchasing power parity. Therefore, although the price of gold has increased by about $ 200 since the bull market, the actual price is not high.

2. Crude oil prices

The price of gold and crude oil theoretically change in the same direction, but the correlation coefficient is only about 0.6, and deviations often occur. Therefore, the correlation analysis between the two tends to be long-term. The relationship between gold and crude oil is an indirect relationship. The transmission mechanism is: the fluctuation of oil prices affects the world economy, especially the US economy, because the total US economy and crude oil consumption are ranked first in the world; the trend of the US economy affects the quality of US assets and causes the dollar to rise , Which in turn caused the price of gold to rise and fall. In addition, crude oil, as a basic industrial raw material, continues to rise in price due to inflation concerns. In the short term, the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates is favorable to the US dollar. The impact, resulting in anxiety that the economy is in stagflation, will strengthen the gold's value preservation function. Oil prices fluctuated above $ 50 for most of 2013. In other words, the era of low oil prices is gone.

The outbreak of the Third Middle East War in 1973 triggered the first oil crisis. The price of oil jumped from 4.31 US dollars per barrel in November 1973 to 10.11 US dollars in December. In 1978, the political situation of Iran, the world's second largest oil exporter, changed drastically. Iran s pro-American moderate King Pahlavi stepped down. The next year s Iran-Iraq war caused the second oil crisis to erupt and the price of oil jumped to $ 37 in 1980 The high point of each barrel brought high global inflation. But both times were caused by short-term factors. American geophysicist Kim Harbert speculated in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. It turns out that US crude oil production has indeed been declining since the early 1970s. This phenomenon is known in the industry as the "Hartbert's Apex" theory, and this theory has been verified in many countries since then. According to this theory, the supply of ball oil is facing a geological depletion of resources. It is expected that world oil production will reach its peak around 2007, and then it will decline at a rate of 5% to 10% per year. The former global crude oil production has reached its limit. Since the second half of 2004, global production capacity has exceeded the 80 million barrels / day mark, rising to 81.5 million barrels / day, and the actual oil production capacity has reached 4 billion tons / year. Compared with the world's effective capacity limit of 82 million barrels per day, this level has only 500,000 barrels of potential growth space. The remaining capacity is already difficult to cope with the impact of sudden factors. In other words, the global crude oil supply system is already quite fragile. Essential factors are likely to cause soaring oil prices. Due to the strong growth in demand from China and India (mostly used to establish strategic oil reserves), the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil will definitely occur in the foreseeable future, coupled with the instability in the Middle East, the major oil-producing region, and the exchange rate of the US dollar. Depreciation and speculation in hot money, the original price is expected to continue to rise in the future.

With the increasing shortage of oil resources, the competition for control over oil resources by major countries has become increasingly fierce. At the same time, countries that have control over oil resources also have capital that opposes hegemonic countries. Countries such as Iran and Venezuela have become increasingly tough on the United States. These have aggravated the instability of the international situation.

Gold price chart consumption factors

When national income increases and consumption intentions increase accordingly, jewelry, jewellery, gold medals, and gold coins become purchase targets. According to data from the World Gold Council, demand for gold consumption rose sharply by 7% in 2004. Consumption demand in India, the world's largest gold market, increased by 17%, and demand in China rose by 13%. Among them, demand from major jewellers and retail investors. A report from the World Gold Council shows that global gold demand rose 26% in the first quarter of 2005 to 977 tons. Among them, the consumer demand for jewellery rose by 19% to 688 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of the total demand. Except for Europe and Japan, other countries and regions have increased to varying degrees. The supply and demand of gold itself has made the price of gold increasingly decoupled from the US dollar since 2005, and its correlation has continued to decline.

Consumption factors cannot affect the price of gold in the short term, so the seasonal impact of this factor is mainly considered. For example, in the early stages of the Golden Week, the Chinese New Year holiday, and the peak marriage in India in October, the price of gold's firm offer has been firmer.

Gold price chart central bank activity

The central banks of various countries are large gold producers. According to data released by the World Gold Association, the total world gold reserves in 2012 were 32,650 tons, about 13 times the world's annual output of gold. Therefore, the buying and selling trends of central banks in various countries have also become the main factor affecting the price of gold . The following figure shows the rankings of the major gold reserves (data from the International Gold Council):

Because the long-term value of gold reserves in European countries is underestimated. For example, gold purchased in 1970 was only about $ 35 per ounce. Selling gold in exchange for foreign exchange and improving the value and quality of financial assets in various countries has become an inevitable choice. Budget deficits in European countries have remained high since 2012, and selling gold reserves to supplement the national treasury has also become one of the options. In 1999, the price of gold on the international market fell sharply. In order to stabilize the international gold price, the eurozone countries, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, the Swedish Central Bank, and the European Central Bank signed agreements stipulating that in the five years from 1999 to 2004, central banks of each country could sell a total of 400 tons of gold reserves each year, so that The central bank's gold sales were restrained and kept stable. The agreement expired in September 2003, and a new five-year gold sale agreement raised the upper limit of 400 tons to 500 tons per year.

However, with the continuous decline of the US dollar, while the European Central Bank is selling gold reserves, central banks in Asia and the Middle East are attracting gold to adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves and reduce the holding ratio of US dollar assets. The purchase behavior of these central banks is also one of the reasons to support the rise in gold prices. For example, China aims to keep the proportion of gold reserves in total reserves at 5%, compared with 1.5% in 2013.

In addition to the above countries, the IMF's gold sales initiative to reduce or reduce the debt of poor countries has also become the focus of market attention. However, because this move is suspected of disrupting the market and harming the interests of the producing countries, coupled with US opposition, the plan has been pending. In 2013, the IMF had 3,217 tons of gold, with a market value of 45 billion U.S. dollars, but only 9 billion U.S. dollars in the organization's accounts, which is actually undervalued. A more likely solution would be to revalue the IMF's gold reserves and use the value of book assets to offset the debt owed by the poor to the IMF.

Gold price chart investment tips

Generally speaking, precious metals trading mainly achieves profits by buying long and short, that is, if you predict that the future trend will rise, then you buy long orders, and if you predict that it will fall, sell short orders, as long as the future trend Consistent with your prediction direction, you can make a profit. The shortest process is only a few minutes. It all depends on how you operate. Of course, if you do nt want to spend your energy on research in order to save effort, you can also find some more professional platforms to follow their orders, such as Furu Capital, etc. This type of capital market trading model is more direct and faster than traditional stock trading. Through the leverage to quickly enlarge the profit space, if the operation is stable, at least 20% of the principal can be realized every month. At present, 90% of transactions in the world's top secondary markets adopt the spot trading model, and everyone can refer to it.

Gold price chart technology industry

Gold has high plasticity due to its low ignition point and strong ductility. Therefore, the electronics industry, electroplating industry, and medical departments consume more than 60 tons of gold each year, accounting for about 17% of the total consumption. Therefore, the more developed the above industries, the greater the demand for gold, and the price of gold will rise. Again, this factor is not a short-term influence factor.

Gold price chart investment demand

Investment demand is different from real gold consumption demand. The former's leverage often causes greater changes in demand. The rise and fall of gold prices are more or less related to the speculative activities of the fund. As the price of gold continues to rise, the demand for investment in gold has also increased accordingly. With more and more hedge funds involved in the commodity market and the emergence of gold funds, the introduction of more and more gold investment varieties, gold investment demand has set a historical record, only the data on long positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange has reached gold in 2012 30% of production. With China's further opening up of the personal gold investment market, physical investment products such as gold coins and bars need to consume a large amount of real gold, and the potential for investment demand for gold is quite huge.

Gold price chart other factors

(L) Impact of the US dollar exchange rate.

(2) The monetary policy of each country is closely related to the international gold price.

(3) The impact of inflation on the price of gold.

(4) The impact of international trade, finance, and external debt deficits on gold prices.

(5) International political turmoil and war.

(6) the impact of stock market prices on gold prices.

Many times, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange market has a very large impact on the gold market. When the dollar exchange rate rises and falls, gold often drives gold to fall and rise. The rise of the euro will also drive the rise of gold. Generally speaking, the dollar rises, the gold falls, the dollar falls, and the gold rises. It does not rule out the situation of synchronization, but the situation is very rare. If this happens, investors need to analyze carefully ,consider carefully.
In the international foreign exchange market, the weakness of the US dollar tends to drive up the price of gold. This is because the decline in the US dollar can enable investors who use non-US dollar as the base currency to buy cheap gold in other currencies, while stimulating demand for gold. , Especially consumer demand for gold jewelry. For example, when the US dollar depreciated by 40% against the Swiss franc from 1985 to 1987, the price of gold rose from US $ 300 to US $ 500 per ounce.

Generally speaking, when the growth rate of the US economy slows down and signs of recession appear, the decline of the US dollar exchange rate is expected to rise. On the contrary, the exchange rate of the US dollar rebounds, and the price of gold will fall. This is because the decline of the US dollar exchange rate is often related to inflation, which leads to an increase in speculative demand in the market, which in turn stimulates the rise in the market's gold price. In August 1971 and February 1973, the U.S. government announced the depreciation of the U.S. dollar twice. It was precisely because of the sharp fall in the U.S. dollar exchange rate and inflation that the price of gold on the international gold market rose to a record high in early 1980 , That is, over $ 800 per ounce. Looking back over the past thirty years of history, it can be found that when the dollar strengthens against the currencies of other western countries, the gold price in the international market will fall sharply. If the dollar depreciates slightly, the price of gold will gradually rise. The price of gold plummeted, and there was a tide of buying physical gold everywhere, and some people took the opportunity to cheat under the guise of investing in gold .