What is Kondratieff?

Kondratieff wave, also known as Supercycle , refers to the cyclic tendency in the world economy. This concept was developed in 1928 by the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratieff, who argued that the world was experiencing inevitable periods of economic climb, platforms and falls. These periods were called waves for the shape that these cycles produce when they are plotted on the chart. According to Kondratieff, the average length of one cycle is 50 years. Kondratieff's conclusions were not popular with the Soviet leadership and were considered a challenge for Stalin's plans for the future of Russia. In 1938 he was imprisoned and executed. The waves were posthumously named after him by Joseph Schumpeter, the Moravian economist, in 1939. The first, spring, is when the world economy is on the plateau or is just beginning to improve. Summer occurs when the economy begins to pick up Speed ​​and there is a great prosperity. The fall is represented by recession and other plateau, while winter is considered depressed.

andAny majority of academic economists are not widely accepted, the phenomenon of Kondratieff wave is quite popular in heterodox or alternatively, the economy. Even among his supporters, there is no general consensus about the beginning and end times of any particular wave. There are also concerns that faith in theory has caused many of them to force events into formulas where none actually exists.

Despite the lack of an agreement between experts, exactly if cycles begin and end, it is generally agreed that five wave cycles of Kondratieff have occurred since the industrial revolution. This is known as the Schumpeter-Freeman-Perez paradigm. This idea claims that it is a special innovation or a number of innovations that encourage the spring cycle in Kondratieff Wave. It also theorized that once the innovation is saturated with the world market in the summer phase, the phase of falling or recession begins.

Proponents claim that the first modern waveAnd Kondratieff appeared approximately in 1800 with the development of spinning and weaving technology based on cotton and lasted until 1850. Our world is reportedly in the Fifth Wool Phase that began in 1991. The supposed point of saturation of this wave is between 2010 and 2020.

It was also hard that global wars were tied to Kondratieff waves, especially American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein. According to Wallerstein, global conflicts often occur in the same way as the summer phase of the wave, where the world production of goods and services is on the rise. His theory on this postulate that inflation caused by such wars eventually leads to the autumn and winter of the Phases of the Wave.