What Is a Gambler's Fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy, also known as Monte Carlo fallacy, is a false belief that the chance of an event in a random sequence is related to a previous event, that is, the chance of its occurrence will follow the previous event Times. If a fair coin is repeatedly tossed, and the reverse side is repeatedly tossed up repeatedly, the gambler may mistakenly believe that the chance of the next toss will be greater. This is an informal fallacy.

Gambler's Fallacy

The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by the example of repeated coin flips. Toss a fair coin, the chance to face up is 0.5 (one-half), and the chance to toss two times in a row is 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25 (one-quarter). The chance of throwing a head three times in a row is equal to 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125 (one-eighth), and so on.

Now suppose we have thrown heads four times in a row. The gambler's fallacy says, "If you throw a head again next time, it will be five consecutive times. The chance of you throwing the head five times is (1/2) 5 = 1/32. So, the next time you throw a head Chances are only 1/32. "

The above demonstration steps fall into error. If the coin is fair, the chance of throwing a negative side is always equal to 0.5, and it will not increase or decrease. The chances of throwing five heads in a row are equal to 1/32 (0.03125), but this means before the first throw. After throwing four heads, it is not included in the calculation because the result is known. Regardless of how many times the coin has been tossed and the result, the chances of the next toss are still equal. In fact, the 1/32 chance ratio is calculated based on the assumption that the first chance is equal and the first chance is equal. Because many positives have been thrown before, it is a fallacy to argue that this time the negatives are thrown. This logic only works until the coin is thrown for the first time.

The famous Martinagle double bet system after losing is one example of a gambler's fallacy. The operation method is that the gambler bets $ 1 for the first time, if they lose, they will bet $ 2, and if they lose, they will put in $ 4, and so on, until they win. This situation can be explained by the random walk mathematical theorem. This system or a similar system takes great risks for small returns. Unless there is unlimited capital, such strategies can succeed. Therefore, it is better to bet a fixed amount each time, because it is easier to estimate the average winning or losing amount per hour.

Gamblers have their own set of theories, called gambler's fallacy, which is characterized by always believing that their expected goals will come, just like when roulette is played, red or black

Gambler's fallacy bias affects most people in developing and using operational strategies, adjusting capital positions, and buying and selling. They completely ignore those random factors. They look for deterministic facts, and they seem to have such a system when operating strategies. Don't give yourself enough protection or even consider fund management as part of the system.

Society is like an oversized casino. Everyone must live in this casino. Use their own pay to gamble tomorrow. The target of gambling is not only money, but also positions. There is the stability of the political power and the victory or defeat of war. Opportunities, as well as the happiness of marriage ... The expectation of people in the gambling game is to make the best use of the rules of gambling and make the best decisions, that is, to guide the increase of their own income through the rules. But not everyone can get a satisfactory result in the gambling game. What should I do if I lose? We call those gamblers who don't symbolic "little money" but large enough to ruin themselves. Because there are so many bets in the world, so many gamblers are born.