What Is Negative Inflation?
Inflation expectation means that people have estimated that inflation is coming and plan to prepare in advance to prevent inflation from harming themselves. However, measures to prevent inflation itself will cause asset prices to rise, that is, expectations of inflation itself will accelerate inflation. 's arrival
Inflation expectations
- Inflation expectations are simply
- At present, China's economy continues to maintain steady and rapid growth, and domestic and foreign confidence in China's economic growth has increased, but at the same time, it is also facing upward pressure on prices. February 2011
- Inflation expectations are an important cause of inflation. Once consumers and investors form strong inflation expectations, they will change their consumption and investment behaviors, thereby increasing inflation and possibly causing a spiraling rise in inflation. For example, if consumers and investors consider certain products and assets (real estate, stocks,
- In the first months of 2010, the topic of inflation was common in the media, reflecting anxiety about inflation. In particular, the CPI rose by more than 3% at one time, which further strengthened people's expectations for inflation. Fortunately, the June CPI increase announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was unexpectedly lower than expected, and the topic of inflation was less. However, perhaps in the near future, inflation expectations will rise again.
- Related Comics
- The weakening of inflation expectations stems in large part from weakening concerns about the above factors. Now, these factors are changing.
- There is a clear positive correlation between fluctuations in food prices and CPI trends. A severe cold and a few heavy snow were one of the main factors that caused the CPI to rise in the first few months of 2010. Although the price changes of vegetables and fruits do not represent the trend of core price changes, their psychological impact on people cannot be underestimated.
- Since the summer, natural disasters have occurred frequently in various places, which has led to rising prices of agricultural and sideline products. Hog prices, which have fallen in the first half of the year, have begun to pick up in the second half of the year. Food prices have also risen steadily due to cost, disaster factors, and the country s increase in minimum purchase prices. . This will once again become the driving force for CPI in the second half of the year.
- The risk aversion triggered by the European debt crisis and the worries about the second bottom of the economy caused the dollar to rise rapidly, while the euro suffered a rapid correction, which led to the decline in international commodity prices. However, with the announcement of Europe s huge rescue plan and the smooth repayment of short-term debt by major debtor countries, the anxiety about the European debt crisis in the international market began to recede, the US dollar index continued to fall, and international commodity prices rebounded. This makes it possible for imported inflation to rise.
- Unlike the first half of the year, labor costs continued to rise after the second quarter. On the one hand, it is necessary for the whole society to share the fruits of economic development and improve the remuneration of workers; on the other hand, historical data show that rising labor costs and rising consumer prices are spiraling upward. Increased labor costs will create cost-driven inflationary pressures that will become more pronounced in the second half of the year.
- However, we should also see that although the CPI growth rate may surge again in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, it will be like the cold spring and hot autumn, which will not last for a long time. After the economic growth gets rid of the overheating mood and returns to the normal growth rate, the price changes will get rid of the violent trajectory, thereby drawing a relatively gentle upward curve.