What Is the Relationship Between Globalization and Economic Development?

In the 21st century, we will face the trend of economic globalization. Can a socialist country with Chinese characteristics cope with the situation, promote strengths and avoid weaknesses, seek benefits and avoid disadvantages, and adhere to its own path and direction for a long time, so as to finally achieve the full rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Major issues that require in-depth research. In the process of studying economic globalization, we must carefully analyze and critique Western concepts, viewpoints, and theories, and then propose our own set of views and theories on globalization.

Economic Globalization and the Trend of World Economic Development

table of Contents

sequence

Chapter I Trends in the 21st Century World Economy

Chapter II Trends in Liberalization and Informatization of International Trade

Section 1 Development of Post-war International Trade

Section II Trade Liberalization and Protectionism

Section III

Since the second half of the 20th century, the development of the internationalization of economic life has introduced two development trends in the world economy: economic globalization and

I. Economic globalization develops in twists and turns

2. The competition of comprehensive national strength with technology as the guide and economy as the center is increasing.

3. The new technological revolution has a profound impact, and the acceleration of economic informatization

4. The economies of various countries are developing in the direction of marketization

V. Some global economic issues such as population, food, energy, water resources, ecological environment, etc.

6. Unbalanced development of world economy and further development of multipolarization

Seven countries' economies

Let's review the development models from the four Asian dragons to the BRIC countries to the VISTA five countries in recent decades and compare and analyze the reasons to draw a new picture of world economic development. It can be summarized as follows:

The four Asian dragons: government-led, non-intervention, extroversion

BRIC countries: state-led, emphasis on combining independence and openness

VISTA countries: emerging forces

Economic Globalization and World Economic Development Trends

The "Four Little Dragons" is a successful example of the development model of newly industrialized countries and regions. Later, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries also basically used this model. It is characterized by a very small area and no natural resources. Supporting economic growth depends on industrial manufacturing, which is labor-intensive in the early stages and technology-intensive or capital-intensive in the later stages.

From the perspective of government roles, the West believes that only democratic governments can sustain economic development. However, the "Four Little Dragons" do not possess the so-called high degree of democracy in the West, but a centralized government, but they all have a strong sense of development: to maintain the political power, they need to develop the economy and support the political power with economic results, which is different from the Western view. At the same time, the classic view in the West, the "Washington Consensus," advocates that the government's role must not interfere with the market at all, the market is completely liberalized and the market allocates resources completely, and the "four little dragons" government play an active role in formulating industrial policies.

From a cultural perspective, the West has believed that Christianity is closely related to the development of capitalism for more than 100 years. It advocates competition and individualism, which can help capital growth.

The "Four Little Dragons" are export-oriented. Flexibility is an important factor in their development due to demand-driven production. The important connotation of Confucian culture is flexibility and strong adaptability, but its cultural breakthrough is not strong and it is not good for innovation. Therefore, it is difficult to say which culture is beneficial to economic development.

The "Four Little Dragons" experience is that the government has different levels of intervention, and it is "positive non-intervention", not "positive non-intervention". This is a translation error. Translating PositiveNon-interven-tion into "positive non-intervention" actually means "positive non-intervention". The extent of the "Four Little Dragons" intervention lies in its economic form, and it does not mean nothing. Hong Kong-style enthusiasm for non-intervention is a "Hong Kong Consensus", and the "Four Little Dragons" use the "Hong Kong Consensus" for development.

The Western "Washington Consensus" advocates that the market and capital are completely open, and the price is determined by the market. It is considered to be the best development model, which is not applicable to the development of the "four little dragons."

Economic Globalization and World Economic Development Trends

The "BRIC" has developed rapidly in recent years and constitutes another model of economic development, which is completely different from the "Asian Little Dragons" model.

"BRIC" refers to the development model of big developing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. This name comes from the homophonic English word BRICK (brick) of the English letters BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) at the beginning of the names of the four countries. Goldman Sachs first proposed the concept in October 2003.

The "BRIC" and "Four Little Dragons" differ in that they have a large economic system, a large population, and a large area, and their economic development depends on their own abundant natural resources. At the same time, their economic systems are not completely open and do not rely entirely on exports, and their respective internal markets occupy an important position.

The "Four Little Dragons" regimes are all centralized and undemocratic. They rely on economic achievements to maintain political power, while the "BRICs" have different levels of democracy and different political models. At the same time, the cultural factors of the four countries are different from each other, which is different from the Confucian doctrine of the "Four Little Dragons".

However, one of the factors of the "BRICs" is the same: China's development model, the "Beijing Consensus." Its basic experience: open and reform step by step.

From "Four Little Dragons" to "BRICs", it reflects the rotation of emerging countries and regions' economic rise.

Four reasons for the change of economic globalization and the trend pattern of world economic development

Globalization and economic liberalization have deepened. In the past 10 years, many countries have switched from planned economy to market economy, many export-oriented economies have emerged, trade and financial liberalization have occurred, and many countries have globalized their economies through overseas investment. As a result, low-cost and effective products have appeared, production has increased, and costs have fallen As products become cheaper, demand for raw materials and energy increases, and prices rise. At the same time, after the improvement of life, the population increased and the demand for agricultural products increased. The BRIC countries have strong agricultural production and export capabilities, and they have advantages in agriculture, raw materials, and energy. There is an internal market.

The financial risks of small open economies are increasing. After the Asian financial crisis, small economies have a greater chance of receiving foreign investment shocks, and their ability to protect their financial system is low. This financial danger is growing. Large countries, especially those that are not fully open, have the advantage of defending and protecting their own capabilities. The entire world financial order has also changed. In the past, the international financial system was the "gold standard", but now it cannot guarantee the financial security of the region.

The "new economy" wave is driving change in production. With the evolution of new technologies, in the new economic era, a flexible new production system has been produced. One place can produce many different things, and the production range is wider than before. In the past, Ford production pursued scale to reduce costs. Nowadays, GM can use new technology to produce different products without necessarily requiring large scale. A large economy can produce many different products, and it can have great vitality economically.

The impact of non-economic factors on economic development has increased. After the Asian financial crisis and the 9/11 incident, economic development must consider non-economic factors. Regional security, military capabilities, energy security, etc. Large economies have resources and development can be stabilized, thereby reducing some factors of instability. After the end of the "cold war" in the last century, economic development has not been affected by so many non-economic factors today.

Economic Globalization and World Economic Development Trends

Accelerate the process of multipolarization of the world economy. The "four little dragons" have fewer people and a smaller economic base. Although their rapid economic development has attracted much attention, the impact is mainly in Asia. The "Big Four BRICs" are all countries with vast territory, large economic scale, complete economic system and complete categories, and are distributed on three continents, including Asia, Europe, and the United States, and have a global influence. It is predicted that by 2050, the world economic structure will undergo major changes. The four countries will rank among the six largest economies in the world, and their GDP will exceed the seven major western countries in terms of purchasing power parity.

Promote the rationalization of the international economic order. Unlike the "four little dragons", the "BRICs" all have important international influences. As the economic strength continues to increase, their status and influence in the international economic structure continue to rise, and their voices have also increased significantly.

Promote multipolarity in international politics. With the strengthening of economic strength and comprehensive national strength, the four countries have further increased their influence in international political affairs. India and Pakistan have demanded to become permanent members of the UN Security Council and received strong support. The United States' "one superpower dominates" strategy faces greater challenges.

The rise of the "BRICs" is still in its infancy as a whole, and it has attracted much attention because of its remarkable achievements in development and its huge potential in the future. At present, there are still different problems within the four countries, such as backward education, social differentiation, and insufficient innovation capacity. However, from the perspective of the trend, the rise of the "BRIC" is "scientific prediction", not "beauty myth".

Economic Globalization and World Economic Development Trends

The BRICs "began to become the most important influence."

O'Neill: In many aspects of the world economy, the BRICs have begun to develop into the most important influence. This influence can be seen everywhere, whether it is in the commodity market, foreign exchange market, assets including personal assets market, or the fixed income market. One of the main reasons why the world economy is now able to cope with the slowdown of the US economy is that it is supported by the BRICs. For many developing countries, including many other economies, from Japan, Germany to South Korea and Africa, this means a new export driver.

At present, the total GDP of the BRICs accounts for 13% of the world's GDP, while the United States accounts for 30%. However, from another perspective, in the first quarter of 2007, the contribution of China alone to world GDP growth exceeded that of the United States. This is the first time in this era. China's economy accounts for about 6.5% of the world's total GDP, and in the first quarter of 2007, it grew to nearly 12%, while the United States showed little growth.

Bad effects: O'Neill: I know that some people may see rising commodity prices as a "bad" effect because it increases the risk of increased inflation. But from the perspective of many emerging countries, especially in Africa, this price increase is a very good thing, and not a bad thing! As long as inflation expectations in the West remain roughly stable, the rise in commodity prices should be viewed as a relative price fluctuation, not inflation.

Economic Globalization and World Economic Development Trends Important Barriers to the Development of the BRIC Countries

O'Neill: There are two major risks to the future of the world economy and the BRICs, namely inflation and protectionism, and the danger of the latter is now slowly rising. If the United States imposes extensive trade sanctions on China and restricts Chinese exports, it will trigger a series of chain reactions and cause world trade to fall sharply. World trade is one of the few behaviors that can achieve a win-win outcome in real life. Every effort should be made to avoid protectionism.

"China should qualitatively change to a more developed economy": the "BRICs" can maintain such rapid development. China should change its current emphasis on export tradeespecially the export of some low value-added productsto give other emerging economies room for development. What China needs to do is to shift to some of the characteristics of a more developed economy, including exporting products with higher technological content and higher value-added, instead of, as now, household consumer goods account for a very large share of export proportion.

O'Neill: Many people have been worried about the "hard landing" of the Chinese economy over the years. My attitude is much easier. Because China has been taking very correct actions most of the time. Most importantly, China's productivity is increasing, which means that economic growth is likely to continue to increase. Of course, there is indeed the risk of increased inflation, which is one of the reasons I think China should accelerate the appreciation of the yuan. I think the most important thing is to adopt more proactive policies to stimulate personal consumption and reduce the trade surplus. China also needs to strengthen its energy efficiency. Although there are some good signs, it still needs to do more.

VISTA Economic Globalization and World Economic Development Trends VISTA

Japan s BRIC research scholar Takahisa Menkura: Following the BRIC, the five countries of VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, and Argentina) will become the emerging countries with the most potential for development.

Rationale: VISTA has attracted attention as a potential emerging country. The economies of these five countries will develop rapidly in the next few decades. According to the calculation of the BRIC Economic Research Institute, from 2005 to 2050, the economic scale of the seven major industrial countries in the West (G7) is calculated in US dollars, compared with the present It can be expanded up to 2.5 times, the BRIC countries can be expanded to 20 times, and the five VISTA countries are expected to expand to 28 times. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that VISTA is the emerging country with the most potential for development.