What are the different methods of forecasts?

The prognosis is to predict events, situations and results. It is a scientific process and should not be confused with mental prediction or prophecy, which is ignored by most scientific authorities. The methods of prognosis include comparison with similar situations in the past, observation of current trends and statistical analysis; Educated estimates are also involved. Most of the prognosis includes a certain degree of uncertainty as a result of variables that cannot be predicted. Meteorology, technology and policy are fields that use some form of predictions. The methods of prognosis used by meteorologists include satellite photography; analysis of geographical, temperature and atmospheric data; and comparison with previous conditions in the same geographical area. This science has proceeded to some extent that it can make a reasonably accurate prediction of the future for five to seven days in the weather conditions. In addition, the variables increase so much that the accuracy of predictions begins to crumble. The weather forecasts are readily available throughCity of different media and allow people to plan sudden changes in their local environments.

In the field of finance and economy, the methods of forecasts are used to predict trends on stock markets, trade and value of goods. Speculation on future profits and trade is the main part of the activity on the stock market. The estimated effects of events such as wars or disasters may have more influence on stock markets than the actual effects that eventually occur. Successful forecast methods may have such a significant effect on financial markets that some are regulated by law. For example, initiation trading occurs when a person buys or sells shares on the basis of internal knowledge that is not available to TON Public; This is illegal in the US and many other countries.

Advances in technology can be successfully predicted by the methods of forecasts. Moore's Law greatly predicts that technology is at regular intervaluH reduces, smarter and cheaper, which can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. This allows you to develop devices based on technology that does not exist yet, but will be within a few months or years. Other sciences have their own prediction methods, often calculating the probability of event. For example, astronomers can predict the movement of comets and meteors based on gravitational fields of nearby planets, months and stars.

political science is another field that successfully uses the methods of forecasts. In this case, intelligence organizations and political parties want to know the outcome of the elections before the submission of all votes. This achieves this with output survey and analysis of early voting results. This is particularly simple in the United States, which generally have only two political parties on most ballots. As with other methods of prognosis, this is the degree of probability, not accurate prediction; The survey report often mentions the span of error that applies to the supposed results.