What Causes Oil Scarcity?

The Oil Crisis is an economic crisis that occurs when the world economy or the economies of various countries are affected by changes in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was established in September 1960. Its main members include Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela in South America. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has also become a key organization in the world to control oil prices. The three oil crises so far recognized have occurred in 1973, 1979 and 1990, respectively.

Oil crisis

(Oil price triggers economic crisis)

First Crisis (1973): October 1973

Looking back at the past oil crisis, it also brought positive aspects. First, the crisis triggered long-term structural changes in the world energy market, forcing major importing countries to actively seek alternative energy sources and develop energy-saving technologies. For example, high gasoline prices prompted manufacturers to launch more energy-efficient cars: the average mileage per gallon of American cars in 1990 increased by 40% compared to 1973. On the other hand, it has stimulated the growth of oil production in non-OPEC countries and increased productivity. OPEC's share has gradually decreased from the original 80% to about 40%. However, due to product innovation and the discovery of alternative energy sources, it often takes a long time, so high oil prices are still a major risk to economic growth.

From the realities of international relations in recent decades, we can see that oil resources and water resources are the main factors of wars and conflicts between countries. In particular, seeking control of oil resources has become one of the focuses of international struggles. Iraq s invasion of Kuwait, the Gulf War,

the fourth time

(From an article in the Global Times, No. 915, December 29, 2004)

International oil prices rose sharply

In 2004, international oil prices rose all the way, causing widespread concern in countries around the world. Early January, New York Mercantile Exchange

From the perspective of the supply and demand distribution of oil resources, the word "imbalance"

The strategic oil reserve system originated during the Middle East War in 1973. At that time, due to OPEC's oil embargo imposed on western developed countries, the developed countries jointly established the International Energy Agency. Member countries have stockpiled oil in response to the oil crisis. At that time, the IEA required member states to reserve at least 60 days of oil, mainly crude oil. After the second oil crisis in the 1980s, they stipulated an increase to 90 days, mainly including government reserves and enterprise reserves. Only a few countries in the world have strategic oil reserves of more than 90 days. The main economic role of the strategic reserve is to reduce the psychological pressure on the market by releasing reserve oil to the market, thereby reducing the possibility of rising oil prices and reducing the impact of oil supply on the overall economy. For oil importing countries, strategic reserves are the first line of defense against oil shortages, but their real role is not to make up for lost imports, but to curb rising oil prices. In addition, strategic oil reserves also have the following functions: First, they can gain time for adjusting the mode of economic growth, especially the way of energy consumption. Second, it can play a deterrent effect so that artificial supply shocks do not occur or occur frequently. When OPEC's policies of reducing production and safeguarding prices and increasing production and suppressing prices are alternately implemented, strategic reserves can stabilize the economic and political stability of importing countries without being affected by the impact of artificial oil supply.

Since 1996, China has become a net importer of petroleum and petroleum products. China's imports of petroleum and petroleum products have accounted for 1/3 of the total supply. The National Information Center released a report titled "Analysis of China's Energy and Economic Situation Since 2000" on September 22, 2008. Domestic oil consumption will increase to 425 million tons and 572 million tons by 2010 and 2020, respectively. Oil dependence will reach 55% and 66%.