What Are Decision Aids?

Decision aid means a general term for various methods and technologies required by decision makers in the course of decision-making in order to do a good job of analyzing problems, predicting consequences, handling uncertain factors, evaluating and selecting schemes.

Decision aids

Broadly divided into two categories: ^[1]

(1) To make evaluation and choice of decision-making aids, we must first have a clear understanding of the characteristics of various methods and technologies, and not be fooled by the blind bragging of some books. ^[1]

Secondly, what auxiliary methods should be adopted for a decision, although it can pass the test of past facts and logical inferences to a certain extent, it still largely depends on the analysis and the intuitive judgment of decision makers, that is, Evaluation of the availability of decision aids often lacks clear aids. This is because decision aids cannot guarantee that decisions will be made well. Decision aids are used appropriately and can only be used. On average (and not every decision) has better consequences than not using this method. Choosing a decision aid is also a decision in itself, and as with other decisions, one cannot expect a perfect one. As a result, only the ability to seek to improve as much as possible.

(2) A prerequisite for selecting quantitative analysis technology is to solve the quantification problem. This often has many difficulties.

On the one hand, the understanding of the problem in the minds of decision makers is often imprecise and somewhat vague, but it really grasps its complexity.

On the other hand, mathematical models are all overly accurate, but they are simplified and may not be accurate.

Whether a bridge can be constructed between these two aspects and how to build this bridge is a difficult question to weigh. In order to solve complex problems, people always take some simplified methods, such as simplifying non-linear problems to linear problems, temporarily setting aside minor factors, and reducing fuzzy problems, uncertainty problems to precise problems, deterministic problems, etc. Wait.

Aside from the secondary factors temporarily, the problems of ambiguity and uncertainty are reduced to problems of accuracy, certainty, and so on. This builds a bridge in the above two aspects, which is also the basis for applying quantitative analysis methods. But to build this bridge, decision makers must understand both themselves and mathematical models, but mathematical methods are esoteric after all, which hinders its application. Policymakers therefore tend to choose simple, less precise methods, for one reason. Therefore, although the decision makers are required to increase their familiarity with decision aids, it is also required that the quantitative analysis of decision making techniques be developed in a direction that is easy to understand. In the application of quantitative analysis technology, we must also prevent another bias, that is, we are too superstitious about its function. It must be noted that the problems existing in the human mind are different from those that can be handled by mathematical methods. It is assumed that we want to take advantage of its advantages, but there must be hidden disadvantages. This must be seen. It should be noted that the reason why humans use language is because numbers alone cannot completely solve the problem.

(3) There is a view that the role of decision makers weakens after the use of decision aids. This is a misunderstanding. It depends on the decision maker what decision aids are selected and what data and criteria are entered into the decision aids. The use of decision-making aids does not mean that there is no need for human intuitive judgment, it just means that some intuitive judgments that can make decision makers' mistakes are avoided. In fact, decision-making problems often have a great deal of complexity. After using decision-making aids, decision-makers can get rid of many computational or transactional tasks, and focus more on more complex, more nonlinear, and therefore more Where it is difficult to grasp, this will really make the role of policy makers better.

(4) Many decisions are made under objective pressure, so that decision makers cannot consider or have time to apply formal decision-making aids, and can only make decisions by intuitive judgment. Are decision-making aids useless here? In fact, intuitive judgment comes from the incomparable familiarity with decision-making objects to the extent that habits become natural, thereby forming a quick response without thinking. If this quick response was tempered under the condition that regular decision-making aids were often used in the past, then even if it is under pressure, the possibility of making a reasonable decision will be greatly increased, because he will also Good at asking questions correctly, good at grasping key factors, and good at seeing the connection of quantity, these are the important conditions for making reasonable decisions. Therefore, it is necessary to make the best use of formal decision-making aids when conditions permit. It is also necessary to make correct decisions under pressure or urgency.

(5) There is also a trade-off between benefit and cost when using decision aids. The more advanced and sophisticated decision-making aids are used, the more often the price is paid. This requires compensation from the benefits of decision-making. If the "killer is used to kill chickens", there is only a small improvement in decision-making, then Not worth it anymore.