What Is Zero Growth?

Western economic theory of zero growth that holds a negative and pessimistic attitude towards economic growth and advocates stopping economic growth and population growth is a special form of a discounted dividend model that assumes that dividends are fixed.

Zero growth

In other words,

Those who hold a negative and pessimistic attitude towards economic growth and advocate stopping economic growth and population growth

There will be zero growth in population in 2030, zero growth in resources and energy consumption in 2040, and zero growth in ecological environment degradation in 2050. In the "China Sustainable Development Strategy Report 2000" released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences here, the Chinese Academy of Sciences led by Professor Niu Wenyuan's sustainable development The Strategic Research Group proposed the "three zero-growth steps" that China must cross to achieve its strategic goals for sustainable development, and formulated a timetable for crossing the "three zero-growth steps".

First of all, the "Report" points out that population strategy is a strategy that China must implement in priority for sustainable development, and it is the "first step" for China to successfully embark on the path of sustainable development. It is expected that by 2030, China will achieve zero population growth, that is, zero growth of "natural population growth rate". The total population reached a historical peak of 1.6 billion. At that time, the pressure of population growth was relieved, and then the zero growth rate of resources and energy consumption could be achieved, and finally the basic threat posed by the degradation of the ecological environment could be lifted. The study "Report" shows that the proportion of China's population in the world's total population will drop from 20.85 in 1999 to 18.2% in 2030, an average annual decline of 0.07 percentage points. The research "Report" shows that the realization of the zero population growth strategic goal will drive an annual GDP growth of 1.2-1.5 percentage points; the employment opportunities provided each year will increase by 0.065-0.07 times on the basis of the original increase; the elasticity coefficient of resource and energy use The rate of decline will be accelerated by 0.02; the national average per capita education period will reach 12 years by 2050; the original life expectancy will be increased by 0.15 times; and the acceleration of the Chinese human development index will be increased by 0.13 times.

Secondly, from now until 2040, the resource and energy consumption rate will reach zero growth, that is, the balance of land resources, the balance of forest resources harvesting, the constant consumption of water resources, the constant consumption of energy, and the constant consumption of mineral resources will be achieved. . This constant is the amount of material and energy needed for a per capita GDP of $ 6,000. The energy structure should gradually reduce the proportion of coal to three quarters to less than 50%. After that, on the basis of basically not increasing the physical form, we should realize the continuous growth of national wealth and step onto the second threshold of China's sustainable development strategic goals.

Third, the "Report" proposes that China's third stage of zero growth to achieve sustainable development is from now to 2050. It will take another 10 years to 2050 after China achieves zero growth in population size and zero growth in resources and energy consumption. To achieve zero growth rate of ecological environment degradation, to reach the third threshold of China's sustainable development strategy.