What Are the Different Methods of Macroeconomic Forecasting?

Macroeconomic forecasts refer to various economic forecasts made within the scope of the economic activities of the national economy, sectors, and regions. Because the development of macroeconomics has coherence, relative stability, and causality, this makes macroeconomic forecasts inevitable. Scientific rationality makes macroeconomic forecasting an important basis for formulating macroeconomic policies, compiling and checking economic development plans, and adjusting economic structure.

Macroeconomic forecast

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Macroeconomic forecasts refer to various economic forecasts made within the scope of the economic activities of the national economy, sectors, and regions. Because the development of macroeconomics has coherence, relative stability, and causality, this makes macroeconomic forecasts inevitable. Scientific rationality makes macroeconomic forecasting an important basis for formulating macroeconomic policies, compiling and checking economic development plans, and adjusting economic structure.

Chinese name

Macroeconomic forecast

Forecast content

Social demand for the final product

method of prediction

Qualitative prediction, quantitative prediction

Main forecast

Formulate a capital investment plan

Macroeconomic forecasts serve the formulation of national economic plans, economic plans, and economic policies.

The main prediction is that this is the main basis for formulating capital construction investment plans and industrial structure policies;

Predicting the social conditions of reproduction is an important basis for comprehensively balancing the national economic plan;

Forecasting changes in finance, credit, taxation, savings, etc. This is the main basis for analyzing the national economic situation and formulating macro-control policies;

Forecasting the situation of gross national product, national income and total social demand is the main basis for predicting the completion of the annual plan, formulating plans for the next year, and formulating policies to control the overall level of market prices

Forecasting the demand and supply of labor is the main basis for formulating education plans and policies.

Macroeconomic forecasting methods include qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. Because quantitative forecasting has clear indicators and measurable advantages, it has become the basic method of macroeconomic forecasting. Qualitative forecasting supplements quantitative forecasting. There are many methods for quantitative macroeconomic forecasting, including econometric modelling methods, macroeconomic statistical analysis and forecasting methods, system dynamics models and methods, input-output analysis methods, and economic cybernetics models and methods.

Macroeconomic econometric model

Macroeconomic econometric model is one of the most important application areas of econometric methods. The macroeconomic econometric model takes the entire national economic activity as the object of study, and studies the interdependence among the main indicators in the macroeconomy. Macroeconomic forecasting refers to the application of the simultaneous equation model of econometrics to describe the operation of the national economy based on economic-related theories, starting from the history and current situation of economic development, based on investigations and statistics, and based on scientific qualitative analysis and judgment. And rigorous quantitative calculation as a means to analyze and explain the development and evolution of macroeconomic activities, so as to make scientific predictions about the future development and evolution of the phenomenon. Macroeconomic econometric models can perform economic structural analysis, economic forecasting, and economic policy evaluation of the national economy. Since Ding Bergen (1937) first established the US macroeconomic econometric model, the macroeconomic econometric model has been gradually adopted by governments of various countries. The 1950s and 1960s were the golden period of the development of the macroeconomic econometric model represented by Klein. Although the macroeconomic econometric models of the 1970s caused various doubts and censures due to their inaccurate predictions, the classic econometric models are still widely used economic analysis and forecasting tools and have become the mainstream method of forecasting.

Macroeconomic Statistical Analysis and Forecasting

The macroeconomic statistical analysis and forecasting method refers to the macroeconomic theory as a guide, starting from the actual observation data of economic indicators, conducting statistical analysis on the macroeconomic aggregates and structure, the national economic operation process and its entirety, and the statistical relationship of macroeconomic statistical indicators. A quantitative analysis method system for forecasting and analyzing macroeconomics. Specific methods include traditional statistical predictive analysis methods, such as comparative analysis, average analysis, factor analysis, correlation analysis, sampling analysis, and dynamic analysis; modern statistical predictive analysis methods, such as principal component analysis, factors Molecular, cluster analysis, canonical correlation analysis and discriminant analysis.

System dynamics

The system dynamics method is to take a macroeconomic system or one of its subsystems as a complex system with continuously changing nonlinear multi-loop information feedback. It comprehensively uses system theory, cybernetics, information theory, and organization theory, and uses a set of computer simulations. (Simulation) technology, a method for predictive analysis of macroeconomics. In the process of quantitative analysis of macroeconomics by system dynamics, the macroeconomic system or one of its subsystems is generally regarded as a closed-loop system with feedback functions composed of interacting and interdependent parts. It is believed that the system's behavior pattern or dynamic trend, including growth, stability, decline, fluctuations, or shocks, is determined by the system's causal feedback structure. The environment in which the system is located must affect the system's behavioral pattern through the internal structure of the system. Diao 'can work. System dynamics seeks the causality of system behavior patterns from the internal structure of the system under study, rather than interpretation from external disturbances of the system. Because the macroeconomic system or one of its subsystems is a complex system with multiple information feedback structures, the increase or decrease of information in the process of propagation, the delay in decision-making and behavior, the inputs and outputs, and the causes and consequences. It is impossible to make a correct judgment based on intuition and experience. Therefore, system dynamics believes that only by studying the causal feedback structure of the system and through quantitative simulation experiments, can it reveal the system's behavior pattern or dynamic trend. This is the basic research method used by system dynamics for quantitative analysis of macroeconomics. .

Input-output analysis

The input-output analysis method refers to a macroeconomic quantitative analysis method system that uses input-output analysis techniques and focuses on the interdependence between inputs and outputs between various sectors of the macroeconomic system to predict and analyze the macroeconomy. An important application area of input-output analysis methods is for macroeconomic forecasting. The main analysis tool of the input-output analysis method is the input-output table. The input-output table has two types: value type and physical type. The input-output analysis method is to establish an input-output analysis model through the input-output table to predict and analyze the macro economy.