What is the Consumer Sentiment Index?

The consumer confidence index is an indicator of the strength of consumer confidence. It is a leading indicator that comprehensively reflects and quantifies consumers' evaluation of the current economic situation and subjective feelings about economic prospects, income levels, income expectations, and consumer mental state, and predicts economic trends and consumption trends. Consists of consumer satisfaction index and consumer expectation index. The former refers to consumers 'evaluation of current economic life; the latter refers to consumers' expectations of changes in future economic life. They are composed of several secondary indicators: income, quality of life, macroeconomics, consumer spending, employment status, satisfaction with the purchase of durable consumer goods and savings, expectations for the next year, and purchase of housing and decoration, and purchase of cars in the next two years And expectations of stock market changes in the next 6 months. The index uses a questionnaire survey of urban consumers, and the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics is responsible for the survey statistics. Based on the end of 1997, it dynamically reflects changes in consumer confidence indexes. A higher index value indicates stronger consumer confidence. [1]

Consumer confidence index

Consumer Confidence, also known as Consumer Sentiment, is
1940s University of Michigan Survey
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According to economic theory, consumption is a function of income. Consumer confidence (or sentiment) is, in the final analysis, a reflection of consumers 'estimates and expectations of their household income levels, which are based on consumers' subjective perceptions of various factors that restrict household income levels. These factors mainly include: the economic development situation of the country or region,
Month
Consumer confidence index
Consumer expectations index
Consumer Satisfaction Index
May 2013 99.0 102.7 93.4
April 2013 103.7 108.1 97.1
March 2013 102.6 107.9 94.5
February 2013 108.2 113.3 100.6
January 2013 104.5 110.1 96.1
December 2012 103.7 107.6 97.8
November 2012 105.1 109.4 98.6
October 2012 106.1 109.3 101.2
September 2012 100.8 104.0 96.0
August 2012 99.4 103.7 93.0
July 2012 98.2 101.5 93.3
June 2012 [2]
Chinese consumer confidence
Compared with household income and expenditure surveys, consumer confidence (or sentiment) surveys have different characteristics:
Purpose and content are different
The contents of household income and expenditure surveys are mainly focused on household income and expenditure levels, consumption quantities, varieties and prices. The purpose is to reflect the living standards of the people and to prepare living expenses.
A survey released by MasterCard International yesterday showed consumer confidence in mainland China over the next six months
The Consultative Consumer Confidence Index measures consumer confidence in business, employment and personal income. This indicator collects thousands of samples by mailing questionnaires, and is the largest sample size indicator among US consumer confidence indicators. Consumer confidence is usually linked to consumer spending. If consumer confidence rises, consumer spending tends to increase; if consumer confidence declines, consumer spending and demand usually decline.
Each time the consultant consulted it, it was completely different from the last time, and only asked the respondents' expectations for the next 6 months. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey conducted a second survey of many respondents, asking them about their expectations for the next one to five years. The longer the survey points to, the more stable the index. The index uses 100 as the base period value.
With different calculation methods, there are two values for the index: one is between 0 and 200. 100 is the median, indicating that consumer confidence (or mood) is a neutral attitude. 0 indicates extreme pessimism, while 200 reflects extreme optimism; the second is between 0 and 100. 50 is the median, and 100 reflects extreme optimism. The US Consumer Confidence Index released by the United States Conference Board is the first form of value. A value greater than 100 is positive for the US dollar and negative for crude oil; a value less than 100 is positive for the U.S. dollar and positive for crude oil.
In addition, it should also be combined with market expectations. If the index [3] is less than 100 and lower than market expectations, it will constitute a major negative for the US dollar and a major advantage for crude oil, and vice versa. If the index is less than 100, but higher than market expectations, it means that consumer confidence has improved, but still remains negative, which is slightly positive for crude oil. If the index is greater than 100, but lower than market expectations, it means that consumer confidence has declined, but the overall view remains positive It has less impact on crude oil.

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