What is the Delphi method?

The Delphi method is a process of cooperation to formulate predictions about various future trends. They usually try to combine expert opinions and create a consensus where technology or movement can lead. This method of forecast often uses a questionnaire that helps group members to read each other and formulate predictions. In most cases, respondents maintain anonymity throughout the process, in an effort to reduce the amount of influence that the group has on every response. Since then, the organization has been admitted to the forecast of other trends. Examples of how this method can be used today include predicting the results of a potential global crisis, a time frame in which scientists can discover cancer, or how technological progress can affect the entertainment industry.

This process can not be foreseen. Delphi Method advocates believe that panel members - usually experts in their field - have a more full knowledge of possible results than laymen. This excellent knowledge can allow prefabs to formulate more accurateEdes. The answers are also drawn from the knowledge of the group rather than from the predictions of individuals. Anonymous questionnaires potentially reduce distortion.

Delphi method includes several steps. First, the problem or problem is defined for a group. This step usually takes the form of a questionnaire. Each member formulates the answers or statements of positions and submits them to the facilitator.

further, the Facilitator of the Delphi method, organizes answers and returns them to the group. Depending on the type of problem, the number of questions, and the process goals, the facilitator may organize answers into categories. Categories are typically wanted to show the level of consensus among experts. Some DELPHI program programs do not allow the categorization of responses, fearing grouping can attract members interpretation.

The third step in the Delphi method involves allowing the group to analyze all answers. Some members may want to revise theirearlier answers. Then the group evaluates every answer than calling for the next round of the discussion. These new answers usually go through an anonymous organization and submitting again.

This process is generally repeated until the group reaches a predefined stop point. The Delphi method may end after reaching a certain number of questionnaire rounds, achievement of consensus, or when members stop revising their answers. Group's final prediction is usually the average response of the group after several rounds of discussion.