What Is Economic Performance?

The new normal state of China's economy is the symmetry of the economic structure. Sustainable economic development based on the symmetry of the economic structure includes sustainable and stable economic growth. The new normal of the economy is an economy that emphasizes a stable growth of the structure, not a total economy. It focuses on the symmetrical state of the economic structure and sustainable development based on the symmetrical state, not just GDP, per capita GDP growth, and maximum economic scale. The new normal of the economy is to promote growth with growth and promote growth with development. The new normal of the economy does not require GDP, but does not require a way of GDP growth; instead of not requiring growth, it puts GDP growth in a development mode to make GDP growth a part of the regenerative growth mode and productivity development mode. ^[1-2]

China's New Normal

(Economic characteristics)

Chinese name: China's New Normal

Foreign name: The new economic norm in China

New normal definition of China's economy

The new normal of the Chinese economy is the symmetrical state of the economic structure. The sustainable economic development based on the symmetrical state of the economic structure includes sustainable and stable economic growth.

The new normal of the economy is an economy that adjusts its structure and grows steadily, rather than an aggregate economy. It focuses on the symmetrical state of the economic structure and sustainable development based on the symmetrical state, not just GDP, per capita GDP growth, and economic maximization. The new normal of the economy is to promote growth with growth and promote growth with development.

The new normal of the economy does not require GDP, but does not require a way of GDP growth; instead of not requiring growth, it puts GDP growth in a development mode to make GDP growth a part of the regenerative growth mode and productivity development mode. The higher the sustainable growth rate that belongs to the development category and can promote development, the better. The sustainable high-speed growth that belongs to the development category and can promote development is the pursuit of the new normal economy. It is wrong to equate deceleration and efficient equating, high-speed and inefficient equating, GDP high-speed growth, and economic overheating. It is wrong to define the new normal of the economy as deceleration, increasing efficiency, and cooling the growth rate; "Stagnation".

The new normal of the economy is to achieve high-speed sustainable development of the economy on the basis of pinpointing economic growth points and achieving a symmetric economic structure. This includes high-quality sustainable growth of high-quality, non-moisture GDP, which is what we call "stable structural growth." In order to achieve the goal of structural adjustment and stable growth, it is necessary for the government to implement a normalized and proactive fiscal policy, and we cannot mix our government's proactive fiscal policy with the cyclical "stimulus economy" of Western capitalist governments. According to the principles of regenerative economics, long-term capital investment without direct economic benefits will always take precedence over short- and medium-term capital investment with direct economic benefits. Capital construction investment will always take precedence over investment in production means of production, and investment in production means will always take precedence over production of consumer goods. investment. As long-term capital investment without direct economic benefits can only be implemented by the government, government investment will always take priority over private investment. According to the principles of regenerative economics, only incremental reforms can make stock adjustments, and only new economic growth points can optimize the structure of the old industry, eliminate excess capacity, optimize the economic structure, upgrade the growth mode, and transform economic quality assurance. According to the principles of regenerative economics, investment always dominates consumption. Only investment-led consumption has sustainable consumption, and only investment-led consumption has economic structure to optimize sustainable economic growth and development. Saving is good for accumulation, accumulation is good for investment, investment is good for production and economic development, so saving and high saving rate of residents are good for economic development, while extravagance and waste of food and grain are not good for economic development. The so-called "consumption drives the economy" is a false proposition . According to the principles of regenerative economics, investment-driven and innovation-driven are unified. Investment-driven and innovation, entrepreneurship, corporate technology upgrade, industrial structure upgrade, production efficiency, growth mode change, and economic quality assurance are not only contradictory but internally consistent. Only investment-driven, innovation, entrepreneurship, and enterprise technology upgrade, industrial structure upgrade, production efficiency, growth mode change, and economic quality assurance will have a foundation; only innovation, entrepreneurship, and enterprise technology upgrade, industrial structure upgrade, production efficiency, and growth mode change, economic growth and quality assurance will take the lead Only investment-driven has clear goals and directions to make investment effective. ^[1-2]

Interpretation of the New Normal of Chinese Economy

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "China's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities. We must strengthen our confidence, proceed from the current stage of China's economic development, adapt to the new normal, and maintain a strategic normal mentality." Judging the current China by the new normal The characteristics of the economy and its rise to a strategic height indicate that the central government has a deeper understanding of the current Chinese economic growth stage of the changing laws, and it is having a directional and decisive influence on the choice of macroeconomic policies and the transformation and upgrading of industries and enterprises.

The "new" of the new normal means different from the past; the "normal" of the new normal means relative stability, which is mainly manifested in suitable economic growth rate, structural optimization and social harmony; the transition to the new normal means the conditions for China's economic development Many major changes have taken place or are about to occur in the environment. Economic growth will basically say goodbye to the high speed of about 10% in the past 30 years, and it will basically say goodbye to the traditional unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable extensive growth model.

Therefore, the new normal will not just fall by a few percentage points, nor will it be a year or two adjustment to the "new normal." Failure to recognize the new trends, new features, and new dynamics under the new normal will not only make it difficult to adapt to the new normal, but also harder to grasp the initiative of economic work. ^[3]

In May 2014, Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Henan that China's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities. We must strengthen our confidence, proceed from the current stage of China's economic development, adapt to the new normal, and maintain a strategically normal mentality. This is the first time that a new generation of central leaders has described the Chinese economy in a new cycle with a new normal.

Later, in July, Xi Jinping put forward again in a forum with non-party people "correctly understanding the staged characteristics of China's economic development, further enhancing confidence, adapting to the new normal, and jointly promoting sustainable and healthy economic development."

In November, Xi Jinping systematically explained the new normal for the first time at the APEC Business Leaders Summit. In Xi Jinping's view, the new normal has several main characteristics: speed-"transition from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth", structure-"continuous optimization and upgrading of economic structure", and power-"from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation drive".

On December 5, 2014, the New Normal was first mentioned at the Politburo meeting. In the communique of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the new normal was mentioned in three places: "China enters the new normal of economic development, good economic resilience, full potential, and large room for manoeuvre." Facing a lot of difficulties and challenges, "Proactively adapt to the new normal of economic development and keep the economic operation in a reasonable range." (Zhongxin Li Jinlei) ^[4]

The nine characteristics of the new normal of the Chinese economy

The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 9 to 11. For the first time, the conference explained the nine characteristics of the new normal-

The meeting held that to understand the current situation scientifically and accurately judge the future trend, we must understand the stage characteristics of China's economic development historically and dialectically, and accurately grasp the new normal of economic development.

From the perspective of consumer demand, China s consumption in the past had obvious imitation wave-type characteristics. In 2014, the imitative wave-type consumption phase basically ended, and personalized and diversified consumption became mainstream, ensuring product quality and safety, and activating demand through innovative supply. The importance of consumption has increased significantly, and correct consumption policies must be adopted to release consumption potential so that consumption will continue to play a fundamental role in promoting economic development.

From the perspective of investment needs, after more than 30 years of high-intensity large-scale development and construction, traditional industries are relatively saturated, but infrastructure interconnection and investment opportunities in new technologies, new products, new formats, and new business models have emerged in large numbers. New methods of financing have been put forward, and we must be good at grasping the direction of investment, eliminate investment barriers, and make investment continue to play a key role in economic development.

From the perspective of exports and balance of payments, the international market space expanded rapidly before the international financial crisis. Exports became an important driving force for China's rapid economic development, global demand was sluggish, and China's low-cost comparative advantage was transformed. At the same time, China's export competition Advantages still exist, high-level introduction and large-scale outbound are happening simultaneously. We must step up the cultivation of new comparative advantages so that exports will continue to play a supporting role in economic development.

From the perspective of production capacity and industrial organization, insufficient supply in the past has been a major contradiction that has plagued us for a long time. In 2014, the supply capacity of traditional industries significantly exceeded demand. The industrial structure must be optimized and upgraded. Enterprise mergers and reorganizations, relatively concentrated production are inevitable. Emerging industries, The service industry and small and micro enterprises have become more prominent. Miniaturization, intelligentization and specialization of production will become the new characteristics of industrial organization.

From the comparative advantage of factors of production, low labor costs were the biggest advantage in the past. The introduction of technology and management can quickly become a productive force. After 2014, the population will age, and the surplus agricultural labor will decrease. The driving force of factors will weaken, and economic growth will Relying more on the quality of human capital and technological progress, innovation must be the new engine driving development.

From the perspective of market competition characteristics, in the past it was mainly quantitative expansion and price competition. After 2014, it is gradually shifting to quality-based and differentiated competition. Unifying the national market and improving the efficiency of resource allocation are endogenous requirements for economic development. We must deepen reform and opening up To accelerate the formation of a unified, transparent, orderly and standardized market environment.

From the perspective of resource and environmental constraints, in the past, the energy resources and ecological environment space were relatively large. After 2014, the environmental carrying capacity has reached or approached the upper limit. It is necessary to comply with the people's expectations for a good ecological environment and promote the formation of a new green and low carbon cycle development method.

From the perspective of the accumulation and mitigation of economic risks, with the slowdown of economic growth, various hidden risks have gradually become apparent, and the risks are generally controllable, but the resolution of various types of risks characterized by high leverage and bubbles will continue for some time. It is necessary to address both the symptoms and the symptoms, and to establish and improve the institutional mechanisms to resolve various risks.

From the perspective of resource allocation mode and macro-control methods, the marginal effect of the comprehensive stimulus policy is obviously diminishing. It is necessary to comprehensively resolve the overcapacity and explore the future industrial development direction through the role of market mechanisms. It is necessary to comprehensively grasp the new changes in the relationship between total supply and demand and proceed scientifically. Macro-control.

These trends indicate that China's economy is evolving to a more advanced form, a more complicated division of labor, and a more reasonable structure. Economic development has entered a new normal. It is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. Turning to mass-efficiency intensive growth, the economic structure is shifting from incremental capacity expansion to in-depth adjustment of stocks and coexistence of optimal incremental growth, and the momentum of economic development is shifting from traditional growth points to new growth points. Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal, and leading the new normal are the big logic of China's economic development at present and in the future. ^[5]

The New Normal of the Chinese Economy

"People's Daily" commented: "The new normal of the economy requires innovative macro-control ideas and methods to cultivate a lasting impetus for economic development. Fundamentally, it requires momentum from reform, structural adjustment, and livelihood potential. It is to activate the power, put the right to be put in place, and let the market players really let go of their hands and feet; it is to make up for the shortcomings, do what they need to do, and increase the effective supply of public goods; The entity's policy should be sufficient to consolidate the micro-foundation of development. "The People's Daily commented:" The new normal is a new exploration. It is necessary to innovate ideas and methods of macro-control, coordinate overall growth and promote reform and structure adjustment to benefit the people. Prevention of risks, opening the way to reform, giving full play to the decisive role of the market, stimulating the vitality of enterprises and society, fostering the endogenous driving force for economic development, accelerating economic transformation and upgrading and optimizing the structure, and better improving people's livelihood. "

The "new normal", as a sober judgement and important definition of the economic situation in China, is of decisive significance for future macroeconomic policy guidance. The People s Daily s three comments clearly show people the overall outlook and future trends of China s economy under the new normal. As the comment states, In the face of the new normal, we need to be calm and firm. Heart and fiery heart, scientifically understand the new normal, actively respond to the new normal, learn to adapt to the new normal, and create new glories for China's economic development.

The New Normal of China's Economy

Xi Jinping pointed out that the Chinese economy is showing a new normal, with several main characteristics:

The first is to switch from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. Secondly, the economic structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded. The consumption demand of the tertiary industry has gradually become the main body. The gap between urban and rural areas has gradually narrowed. The proportion of residents' income has increased. The development results have benefited the broader population. The third is from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven.

Xi Jinping proposed that the new normal will bring new development opportunities to China. First, under the new normal, although China's economic growth has slowed down, the actual increase is still considerable. After more than 30 years of rapid growth, China's economic volume has changed. China's economic growth in 2013 is equivalent to the total economic volume of 1994, and it can rank 17th in the world. Even with a growth rate of around 7%, both speed and volume are among the best in the world.

Second, under the new normal, China's economic growth has become more stable and its growth momentum has become more diverse. Some people are worried whether China's economic growth will slow down further. Can it climb uphill? There are risks, but they are not that terrible. The strength of the Chinese economy is the strongest support for preventing risks. We innovate ideas and methods of macro-control to determine the strategy and policy reserves we have. We are confident and capable of coping with various possible risks. We are working together to promote new types of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and agricultural modernization, which is conducive to resolving all kinds of growing problems. The Chinese economy is more dependent on domestic consumption demand to avoid external risks of dependence on exports.

Third, under the new normal, China's economic structure is optimized and upgraded, and its development prospects are more stable. In the first three quarters of 2014, China's final consumption contributed 48.5% of economic growth, exceeding investment. The added value of the service industry accounted for 46.7%, continuing to exceed the secondary industry. The growth rates of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries were 12.3% and 11.1%, which were significantly higher than the average growth rate of the industry. Energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 4.6%. These data show that China's economic structure is undergoing profound changes, with better quality and better structure.

Fourth, under the new normal, the Chinese government has vigorously streamlined administration and decentralized power, and market vitality has been further released. In short, we must let go of the visible hand of the government and make good use of the invisible hand of the market. For example, we have reformed the enterprise registration system. In the first three quarters, the number of newly registered market entities in the country was 9.2 million, and the number of new enterprises increased by more than 60% compared with 2013.

At the same time, we are also soberly aware that the new normal is also accompanied by new problems and new contradictions, and some potential risks have gradually surfaced. The key to adapting to the new normal lies in the intensity of comprehensive reform. I said at the 2013 Business Leaders Summit that China's reform has entered a period of tackling difficulties and deep-water areas. We must dare to stab hard bones, dare to get involved in dangerous beaches, and dare to attack the chronic illness that has accumulated for many years. ^[7]

The New Normal of China's Economy

Six months after proposing "new normal" as the key word of the new ruling concept, China's top leader Xi Jinping systematically explained the "new normal" for the first time on November 9, 2014. "The new normal will bring new development opportunities to China," he said.

Xi Jinping made the remarks at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Business Leaders Summit. Observers believe that the "new normal" theory issued by Chinese leaders sends a signal to the world that China moving towards the new normal will also inject lasting momentum into the slow and fragile recovery of the global economy.

In the keynote speech entitled "Striving for Sustainable Development and Building the Asia-Pacific Dream Together", Xi Jinping explained to the world's business leaders, including leaders of more than 130 multinational companies, what is the new normal of the economy, the new opportunities of the new normal, and how Adapt to key points such as the new normal.

Feng Feng, a professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said that Xi Jinping first mentioned the "new normal" during a visit to Henan in May 2014. Today's APEC speech marks the further formation of Xi Jinping's "new normal" theory.

"The" new normal "is one of the important thought marks left by the Chinese leaders' wisdom in governing the country at the APEC Beijing conference. Lu Feng said.

When Xi Jinping was talking about the "new normal", what was he talking about?

The speech at the APEC Business Leaders Summit has always been an important occasion for Chinese leaders to explain China's economic development direction and respond to external concerns and questions. The data released recently showed that China's economic growth in the first three quarters of 7.4%, which has caused some people to worry about the downturn of the Chinese economy and even appear empty talk.

"Each major economic indicator is in a reasonable range." Xi Jinping said easily in his speech on November 9, 2014. He also listed many positive signs of structural adjustment, including the continuous increase in employment, the steady increase in residential enterprises and fiscal revenue, The service industry has witnessed significant growth, and domestic demand has continued to expand.

He further pointed out that the new normal will bring new development opportunities to China. This includes:

Although the economic growth rate has slowed down, the actual increase is still considerable.

The economic growth has become more stable and the growth momentum has been more diversified. We are working together to promote new types of industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization, which is conducive to resolving various "growth problems." The Chinese economy is more dependent on domestic consumption demand to avoid external risks of dependence on exports.

The economic structure is optimized and upgraded, and the development prospect is more stable. In the previous three quarters, Xi Jinping s contribution to economic growth exceeded investment, the proportion of added value of the service industry exceeded that of the secondary industry, the growth rate of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries was higher than the average industrial growth rate, and energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased. The economic structure is "better quality and better structure".

The government vigorously streamlined administration and decentralization, and the market vitality was further released. For example, Xi Jinping said that due to the reform of the enterprise registration system, the number of new enterprises in the first three quarters increased by more than 60% compared with 2013.

Lu Feng commented that Xi Jinping used the "new normal" to describe to the world a series of new performances of the Chinese economy, including changes in growth rates, structural upgrades, and changes in dynamics. He specifically described new opportunities derived from the new normal and pointed out that China's economic growth under the new normal. More stable, more diversified growth drivers, and more stable development prospects.

Why is the "new normal"?

The closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China referred to the "new normal" in evaluating the achievements of the past year in the communiqué: The Central Political Bureau adapted to the new normal of economic development, innovated macro-control ideas and methods, and actively solved economic and social development problems ...

Experts who understand Chinese politics point out that the new words and expressions mentioned in the speeches of the Communist Party leaders often contain important political information, and party theorists often call them "new words."

In July 2014, Xi Jinping reiterated the above-mentioned new normal view at a symposium with outside parties.

In Lu Feng's view, the proposal of the new normal means that China's economy must get rid of the "old normal". According to his understanding, the so-called old normal refers to a period of high growth rate, hot economy, and unsustainable economic growth. It also brings about severe challenges of increasing environmental pollution, increasing social contradictions, and increasing international pressure. The "systemic disease" and macro imbalance "syndrome" formed by the long-term reforms lagging behind the 18th CPC National Congress.

External risks brought by the international economic crisis have made it difficult for China's old model of economic development to continue. Chinese leaders describe this challenge as a "three-phase superposition": the growth rate has entered a shift period, the structural adjustment has faced a painful period, and the early stimulus policy has entered a digestive period.

Since 2013, Chinese leaders' new ideas and measures for innovative macroeconomic management have attracted attention, including the emphasis on the need to stabilize macro policies and the need for micro-policies; put forward a reasonable control range and lower the 2014 economic growth target to "7. About 5% "and so on. At the same time, with the comprehensive deepening reform package announced in the fall of 2013 as a sign, we will vigorously promote reforms in the economic, political, social, and cultural ecology.

He believes that the proposed new normal, and the emphasis on the stability and macroeconomic policies, show that Chinese leaders have a scientific and clear judgment on the situation, which is conducive to "stabilizing" macro policies and avoiding a slight movement in the economy I'm going to use my hands to stimulate.

What does the "new normal" mean to the world?

"Xi Jinping's narration of the" new normal "on the international occasion of APEC not only underscores the positive changes in China's economic fundamentals, but also reveals China's decision-makers' determination to face imbalances and adjustment difficulties, and gives a consistent explanation of China's economic situation. "Feng Lu said," This can lead to expectations, build consensus, guide overseas people to a more rational and pragmatic view of the Chinese economy, and give peace of mind to the world economy. "

Although China s economic growth dropped to 7.4% in the first three quarters, according to IMF estimates, the contribution of China s economic growth to world economic growth in 2014 was 27.8%, surpassing the United States. For Asia, China's economic growth of 1 percentage point will drive Asia's growth by 0.3 percentage point.

Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the Decision-making Advisory Department of the National School of Administration, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that a Chinese economy that is heading for the new normal is good news for the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

He analyzed that after entering the new normal, due to the large scale of the total economy, China's pulling effect on the world economy will not decrease, and the demand on the world market will not weaken. At the same time, China's economy is moving towards a new normal, which means that the economic structure is continuously optimized, which has a significant positive effect on the rebalancing and healthy development of the global economy.

"It is impossible for any economy to always maintain double-digit economic growth. China s shift to the new normal medium-to-high-speed growth is also among the top major economies in the world." Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberherr Mann told Xinhua reporters on the sidelines of attending the summit of business leaders on November 9, 2014.

He said that in addition to the speed of growth, quality is more important, and a country, like an enterprise, needs to continuously promote reforms to drive growth.

At the APEC Beijing conference, people noticed that China's role in promoting the development of the Asia-Pacific region is also entering a "new normal."

In his speech on November 9, 2014, Xi Jinping said that with the rise of comprehensive national strength, China has the ability and willingness to provide more public goods to the Asia-Pacific and the world, and in particular to propose new initiatives and ideas for promoting the in-depth development of regional cooperation.

The previous day, Xi Jinping announced that China would invest 40 billion U.S. dollars to set up a Silk Road Fund to provide investment and financing support for infrastructure, resource development, industrial cooperation, and financial cooperation-related projects in countries along the Belt and Road.

For the 2014 APEC meeting, China identified the theme of Building a Future-Oriented Asia-Pacific Partnership and focused on promoting regional economic integration, promoting economic innovation, development, reform, and growth, and strengthening all-round infrastructure and connectivity. issue.

"China will focus on doing its own thing well, and also strive to make its development better for the Asia-Pacific and the world." Xi Jinping said in his speech.

The "new normal": a key to understanding China's direction

Xi Jinping also reminded when explaining the new normal in his speech that the new normal is also accompanied by new contradictions and new problems, and some potential risks have gradually surfaced. He emphasized that the key to being able to adapt to the new normal lies in the intensity of comprehensive reform.

Although Xi Jinping did not specifically explain what are "new contradictions", "new problems" and "potential risks", experts generally resonate with his judgment.

Lu Feng specifically pointed out the new contradictions and new risks that may accompany the new normalization process, such as the "debubbling" of real estate, the "de-leveraging" of shadow banking and local debt, and the "extrusion of excess capacity". Adjustments and resolutions to previously accumulated imbalances and contradictions.

Wang Xiaoguang said that entering the new normal, the economic growth rate has slowed down, and adjustments and reforms such as structural optimization and upgrading are required. This is actually a process of risk release. If we do not take the initiative to "wait, rely on, and demand", and the reform is unsuccessful, economic growth will slow down, social development will stagnate, and even fall into the middle income trap. These need to be addressed through reforms to mitigate risks.

"Opening the bow without turning back, we will unswervingly push forward the cause of reform." Xi Jinping firmly stated in his speech.

He emphasized that China's comprehensive deepening of reforms must stimulate the vitality of the market, broaden the way for innovation, promote high-level opening to the outside world, promote the well-being of the people, and promote social equity and justice.

Observers believe that Xi Jinping's "new normal theory" may have far more comprehensive and profound implications than the economy.

Shi Zhihong, a well-known theorist of the Communist Party of China, wrote in the People's Daily not long ago that in adhering to and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics, promoting comprehensive and deepening reform, promoting sustained and healthy economic development, developing socialist democracy and governing the country according to law, and building a socialist culture China s leaders have created ten The new normal. "

"In China today, a new normal has emerged in large numbers and will continue to emerge in the future." Shi Zhihong said. (Reporters Wu Jihai and Jiang Xufeng contributed to this article) ^[8]