What is a futurist?
Futurists are those who try to predict and analyze the future. There are professional futurists who make futurism for life, as well as amateur futurists who look at the future in their specific area of interest. The arguments for modern futurism appeared in the mid -1940s, promoted by the German ossip K. Flecheim, who said that even if we can determine the most basic statistical trends and portray them several decades in advance, we will generate valuable information for society. Many large organizations now employs futurists and scenarios that will help them gain the advantage in their competition.
The task of the futurist begins with the view of historical data, extracting regularity and a little screening of these trends, albeit just to appear numbers. For example, the human population has doubled over the last hundred years, and while the degree of double has recently slowed down, it makes sense to assume that the Trend will continueObserve, if the doubling time is extended to, let's say every 40 years. General and non -internal statistical trends such as these are canvas on futuristic colors of more speculative projections. Futurists must be careful about any wild assumptions in the basics, so that they do not make the anger of those who pay them for serious forecasts.
After assembling the general idea of the next 5, 10 or 20 years, the futurist often involves "building scenarios" - formulating specific scenarios and classifies them on the basis of their probability. For example, "probable", "possible" and "wild card" scenarios. These help the company or organization to choose their actions cleverly at present to lead to the future of their choice. For example, one could say that we will do most of our shopping online in 20 years, but Alenerely to be the most work will be done in V VIRTUAL worlds.
Some scientists tend to be enthusiastic about futurism. As science describes the world around us with a more accurate and empirical support than the estimates of most laymen, scientists are often futurists part -time. Because many scientists are working on small pieces of small problems, they like to sketch a look at a larger picture and describe the public how their small corner of research is a small part of a much greater useful effort. For example, a researcher working on a new nanotechnical film may indicate that his work could one day be used to filter water for children in developing countries. This is a primary example of a futurist, even if one is not called. Futurists go by many names - but in the end everyone who has been looking forward to more than about 5 years deserves to be called as such.