What Is Unoccupied Property Insurance?

The vacancy rate refers to the ratio of the vacant house area to the total house area at a certain moment. According to international common practice, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is a reasonable zone between 5% and -10%, and the supply and demand of commercial housing is balanced, which is conducive to the healthy development of the national economy. It is necessary to take certain measures to increase the sales of commercial housing to ensure the normal development of the real estate market and the normal operation of the national economy; a vacancy rate of more than 20% is a serious backlog of commercial housing.

vacancy rate

The vacancy rate is mainly used at home and abroad.

Based on the real estate

Algorithm of Vacancy Rate-There are three popular methods of calculating vacancy rate: Vacancy Rate = Whole Society

Reasonable housing vacancy

Three months ago, there were media reports, "

Impact of vacancy rates on real estate investment on real estate investment volatility The current popular opinion in the country is that investment volatility is usually formed by the internal transmission mechanism under external shocks. External shocks include factors such as the macroeconomic environment, economic policies, changes in demand, and institutional changes. It is generally believed that the external shocks that affect the fluctuation of real estate investment mainly come from three aspects: fluctuations in the national economy, changes in macroeconomic policies, and the behavior of developers. When the economy of a country is in the expansion phase, the demand for real estate has increased sharply, the new demand cannot be met in the short term, and real estate prices tend to rise, causing real estate investment to expand rapidly. Conversely, real estate investment has decreased rapidly. And real estate investment is more volatile and more violent. The government's macro policy has two effects on market supply and demand. It can not only play a stable role, but also aggravate the fluctuation of real estate investment in the event of a policy error or excessive regulation. (3) The main behavior of developers is investment, and real estate investment is characterized by a long cycle and a long impact time, and it is difficult to quickly adjust the investment scale according to market conditions. In addition, developers tend to make static expectations. When developers' profit level declines in that year, they will reduce investment; when market sales are smooth, current profits increase, developer confidence will increase, and investment scale will increase ^[1] .

So how does the vacancy rate, as one of the main criteria for measuring whether real estate development is overheating, affect the real estate development investment situation?

The vacancy rate is an important indicator reflecting the market's capacity to absorb in a certain period of time. The type of vacant houses and the proportion of the available supply in the market reflect the effective demand of the market and guide the market supply. It affects the scale of real estate investment and the market trend to a certain extent. .

Vacancy rate is a reflection of past investment

According to statistics, the current period of investment in real estate development and construction projects in China from investment to final delivery and vacancy is generally 2 to 3 years, that is, the supply of commercial housing at a certain point in time is 2 to 3 years Caused by the previous investment, then, the vacancy generation is also a sequelae of investment 2 to 3 years ago. Fluctuations in investment can cause fluctuations in vacancy rates. In this way, through the analysis of the vacancy rate, a general summary can be made as to whether the past investment is appropriate and whether it is synchronized with the level of national economic development.

If the vacancy rate is within a reasonable vacant zone that meets the level of socio-economic development, it means that the past real estate investment and national economic development level are synchronized; if the vacancy rate exceeds the reasonable vacant zone, it has reached an excess area or a dangerous area, the past The real estate investment in China is overheating and growing too fast, exceeding the development level of the national economy. Relevant state departments should sum up experience in future macro-controls, learn lessons for later use; if the vacancy rate is in the vacant insufficient area, it means that real estate investment is insufficient Then, in the formulation of new policies, we can consider creating a more relaxed environment for the real estate industry, encouraging increased investment and promoting the development of the real estate industry.

Vacancy rate can guide current investments

According to the theory of investment operation, real estate investors should regard investment as the process of capital movement, study investment from the nature of the capital and the law of movement, and implement investment. When making a real estate investment decision, consideration should be given to future demand, not current demand, that is, dynamic expectations should be made. Because the real estate commodity construction cycle is long, the demand at the time of decision-making is great, but after the completion, the original demand may have been met, resulting in vacant commercial housing.

The introduction of vacancy rate indicators can serve as a reference in the process of regulating investment scale. For example, if the country wants to determine the total scale of real estate investment this year, then based on a series of indicators such as the income level of residents and social and economic development conditions, the dynamic demand for commercial housing is expected. It is the scale of new commercial housing. Once the scale of the newly added commercial housing is determined, the real estate investment scale can be scientifically regulated. When the scale of real estate investment exceeds the calculated new scale, the state should strengthen macro-control measures to control investment to prevent overheating of investment and a significant increase in vacancy rate; if the scale of real estate investment is smaller than this scale, the state may consider relaxing policies to stimulate Real estate investment to ensure the sustainable and stable development of the real estate industry. Of course, in order to ensure that consumers have a certain choice when buying commercial housing, it is necessary to maintain a certain vacancy rate. The actual real estate investment scale can be appropriately floated based on the calculated new commercial housing scale.

The vacancy rate index can reflect the past investment and guide the current investment. The prerequisite is that the calculation of the vacancy rate must be very scientific and accurate. The calculated vacancy rate is a true reflection of the supply and demand of commercial housing. The correct vacancy rate can guide investment, but distorted vacancy rates can only mislead macro-control.