What is the bias of the backward look?

The bias of the backward view is a documented psychological phenomenon in which people exaggerate the predictability of the event after it has already occurred. Some psychologists refer to the bias of the backward view as the effect "I knew it would happen". Probably you will find some examples of bias in the pub after a big sports event, and people say that the result was obvious and predictable. The bias of the Hindi point of view is one of many such prejudices, and according to a study conducted by the American Psychological Association in 2000, the bias of the Hindi perspective actually helps people think more clearly by helping the brain to maintain the right and relevant information rather than incorrect information. It sounds familiar. Backward view works in many ways and it is particularly important to take bias back into account in criminal cases, as the witness may not be strictly accurate because it can be influenced by bias, along with a number of other distortion that mayLivit the way someone's brain renews and reminds of information.

The classic example of backward view occurs when someone claims that his forecast about the event was more significant than it really was. For example, someone could generally observe that "it looks like a rain in the future", given his general knowledge of local weather. If it rains shortly after this statement is made, it may feel that the forecast was stronger than it really was. Incorrect or inaccurate predictions tend to remember and also vaguely correct predictions, which strengthens the idea of ​​one's mind that his predictive skills are better than they really are.

In a specific call, it will be a very vague statement of an event that could occur, and then turns this statement into a solid forecast after the event. It is sometimes called “postdiction ". Many examples of vague predictions, which were later considered more important than they were, can be found in Greek mythology where cryptic fortune towers create blanket statements that can easily be said to predivate a large number of events.

, along with several other distorted documented in psychology, the bias of the backward view is caused by something known as heuristics of availability. Basically, people perform evaluations on things based on information that can easily bring to mind, although it may not be the most scientific way to establish such an evaluation. For example, someone can visit a particular franchise in a fast food chain and notice that all patrons are overweight. He could then say all the patrons of this chain are overweight on the basis of this only example. In case of bias back, people turn several vague statements into solid predictions and assume that an event like the result of the presidential election is to predictlinen based on their experience.