What is the deception of planning?

planning illusion is intuitively obvious and scientifically measured tendencies of people assume that projects will take less time than them and that the result will be better than justified by past data or experience. For example, the newlyweds almost generally expect their marriage to last a lifetime, although in fact less than half of the marriage actually. The fact that people's predictions are optimistic distorted has been called the most robust finding in prediction psychology.

There are certain exceptions to the deception of planning. One is that people seem to accurately estimate certain important and personally relevant events such as unwanted pregnancy. It is also well known that people overestimate the likelihood of rare, highly negative events that happen or around them, such as the death of the death by a plane in underestimating death by an automatic accident. These are exceptions to deceit planning.

planning illusion is probably a special case of overptimism in general. It has been observed that people overestimate the likelihood that they will become good things. Between 85% and 90% of people feel that their own future will be better - in terms of health and other things that appreciate - than the average peer. There is even a phenomenon called "realistic pessimism" in cognitive psychology, where very pessimistic people have been found to have more accurate predictions in the prediction of the task than people of optimistic or average dispositions.

It has also been found that people are selectively excessive when the predictions they do are not personally relevant, and somewhat less when they are. People have found that they take into account their skills in predicting whether they can achieve something within a given time frame. Optimistic distortion can even correlate with improved performance. Thus, the threat of irrational optimism is not as serious as it seems at first sight.