What is a drop curve?

The decline curve refers to the descending part of the bell curve that depicts the decreasing production of non -renewable natural source, usually oil, as the continuing production exhausts the delivery. The Bell Curve model, which was first designed by M. King Hubbert in 1956, monitors the formula of oil production, with the upward slope presenting new oil discoveries and a new infrastructure for oil removal and distribution. The predictions of oil production are based on the extent of historical discovery and production processes. According to Hubbert's theory of peak, the curve is equal to and finally culminates, because the speed of oil discovery and added infrastructure is maximum and decrease. The level of decrease in the descent curve depends on a number of factors, including changes in demand, government regulations and technical methods.

In the United States, oil production reached in 1970. Since then, US production has been constantly decreasing. In 1999, the AmericaPetroleum Institute estimated that the world's oil reserves would run out between 2062 and 2094. The Institute founded these estimatesY in an average daily consumption of 80 million barrels a day around the world. The forecasts of the United States Energy Information Administration indicate a much steeper drop curve for oil, but with world oil consumption it will reach 118 barrels a day by 2030.

Although the theory of Hubbert Peak predicted the production of oil boreholes, oil fields and international oil production quite consistently, the shapes of the production curve can be changed by several factors. If government taxes or reduce the use of hydrocarbons, the demand for oil is reduced, flattens the final curve and dampens the drop curve. This change would also create effective alternative energy sources. Water or gas injections can push the fields again, allowing a temporary increase in the production level. Finally, hydraulic cleavage or introduction of hydrochloric acid into the rock wall of the oil well will increase oil production by increasing the size of the rocks.

increased regeneraCE oil (EOR) or tertiary recovery facilitates extraction of more oil from every well than traditional recovery methods. EOR can increase oil yield by 10 to 20 percent. It includes the use of chemicals, gases, microbes or vapors to force the oil from the surrounding base to increase recovery. Although this process increases production costs, the Ministry of the United States estimates that the use of EOR could lead to a further 240 billion barrels of oil, which would reduce the steepness of the decline curve.