What Are Fishbone Diagrams?

Fishbone diagrams (also known as cause-effect diagrams, Ishikawa diagrams) refer to an analysis method that finds the "root cause" of a problem. Modern business management education divides them into problem-type, cause-type, and countermeasure-type fishbone diagrams .

Fishbone Diagram

Fishbone diagram by Japanese management master

A. Organize problem-type fishbone diagrams (there is no reason relationship between the elements and characteristic values, but the structure composition relationship)

B. Cause-type fishbone diagram (fish head on the right)

C. Countermeasure fishbone diagram (the fish head is on the left, and the characteristic value is usually written as "how to improve / improve ...")

There are two steps to making a fishbone diagram: analyzing the cause / structure of the problem, and drawing the fishbone diagram.

1. Analyze the cause / structure of the problem.

A. According to the problem, choose the layer method (such as human, machine, material, method, and environment).

(1) Find the problem to be solved;

(2) Write the question on the head of the fish bone;

(3) Convene colleagues to discuss possible causes of the problem and find out as many problems as possible;

The cause and effect diagram is used to describe the constraint relationship between the input and input of the measured object and the input and output during the design process of the software test case. The process of drawing the cause and effect diagram can be understood as the modeling process of the use case designer for the cause and effect business. According to the requirements specifications, draw a cause and effect diagram, and then get an inventory table for use case design. Generally understand that the cause and effect diagram is the pre-process of the decision table. When the causality of the measured object is simple, you can directly use the decision table design use case. Use the combination of causality diagram and decision table to design use cases. ^[1]

Fishbone diagram analysis method is

Making fishbone diagram with statistical tool software MINITAB

Statistics> Quality Tools> Cause and Effect (Fishbone Chart)

Use fishbone diagrams to organize brainstorming information about potential causes of problems. Diagrams help you understand the relationship between potential causes. Can draw

The fishbone diagram, as the name suggests, is like the skeleton of a fish, with thick lines connecting the head and tail, like a spine.

(1) The quality issues or quality characteristics identified are not general and specific;
(2) The cause analysis is not fully carried out, and only rely on a few people to "make cars behind closed doors";
(3) the painting is not standardized;
(4) Draw a picture for one quality characteristic, do not draw multiple quality characteristics on one image.

Fish bone illustration background

In 2013, the industry's focus on A-share IPOs is more than ever. If we only analyze the financing pattern in China, it is difficult to understand this point. In 2012, China's social financing was 15.76 trillion yuan, of which loans and corporate bonds accounted for 52.1% and 14.3%, respectively, and domestic equity financing of non-financial companies accounted for only 1.6%.

Fishbone diagram analyzes China's IPO

However, the number of 2500 listed companies and 170 million A-share accounts in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shows that the impact of A-shares has penetrated into every corner of society. Complex stakeholders have infiltrated the IPO chain, are inextricably intertwined, and are constantly being cut. All of the above are related to the future direction of China's A-share IPO.

The initial public offering (IPO) check comes to the Central Bureau. What will be the result of the check? When will the review process for the IPO restart? Where is the new round of IPO reform going?

Fishbone diagram is a method to find the root cause of a problem in the industry. The fishbone diagram is used to try to find out the factors that cause the problem and organize them according to their interrelationships in order to find a solution. ^[2]

Fishbone diagram problem analysis

Short-term problem

China's IPO market faces 9 major issues. From the time dimension analysis, 9 issues can be divided into 3 short-term issues, 4 medium-term issues, and 2 long-term issues. The postponement of the IPO and financial verification and diversion are aimed at short-term issues. To solve the problem itself, it is necessary to consider various long-, medium-, and short-term issues in a balanced manner.

S1: IPO dammed lake tops out

Since October 10, 2012, the CSRC has suspended the approval of IPOs of new shares. In recent months, the new shares have actually been suspended. However, at the same time, the number of IPO applications of the companies to be listed has continued to increase. At the start of the IPO financial inspection, there were 882 companies under review. This is the largest IPO barrier lake in China's A-share market history.

S2: New stocks face faster

With the successive disclosure of the 2012 annual report. The severe decline in the performance of newly listed companies in 2012 gradually surfaced. Data show that of the 115 companies that have announced their IPOs in 2011, 34 reported a year-on-year decline, accounting for nearly 30%.

There has been an increase in the number of examples of face changes after the listing of new shares. From January to June 2012, of the 104 newly listed companies, 29% of the first half of the company's performance fell after listing, compared with only 7% of the same period of the previous year. Taking a company listed in May 2012 as an example, when the company discloses three quarterly reports after listing, it is expected that the company's annual net profit will fall by more than 90% year-on-year. The company previously disclosed the prospectus and listing announcement, but claimed that in the next 3 years, the main business income and profit will increase by more than 30% annually. Coincidentally, another company released its first quarter financial report that month after its listing, and its net profit fell by 90% year-on-year. ^[2]

S3: Weak A-share market

A bird that makes a bow

The historical trend of A shares can be summed up in a nutshell: beauty is always short-lived, but pain is long.

After a bull market in 1996, followed by a deep pullback in 1997 and 1998; after 5.19 in 1999, and then in extreme cold in 2002 ~ 2005; under the influence of the stock reform and the world economic cycle, in 2006 ~ In 2007, the A-share trend was turbulent, and the Shanghai Stock Index reached a historical high of 6124. The subsequent downturn was so long. Now the Shanghai Stock Index is only hovering around 2,200 points, and the high point has become a thing of the past.

The recent trend of A shares is difficult to be optimistic. In the first quarter of 2013, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. This GDP growth performance was lower than market expectations, adding uncertainty to the stock market rebound. Judging from the published 2012 annual report and the first quarterly report, cyclical industries such as steel, cement, machinery manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals are unlikely to pick up in the short term. ^[2]

Medium-term issues

China's A-share IPO market can be summarized into four medium-term issues: first, the A-share trend deviates from the economic trend, which is difficult to become a barometer of the economy; second, companies and institutions have an impulse to conspire, which has led to repeated prohibitions on whitewashing statements and false listings Endless; Third, the problems exposed by China's PE at the current stage are more obvious. In the A-share market, one side is the wealth of PE, while the other is the large-scale losses of investors in the secondary market. Fourth, the strength of government at all levels The impact of China s intervention on the IPO market cannot be ignored.

Long-term problem

The long-term issues include two aspects. First, should China adopt an approval system or a registration system for IPO approval? Judging from the domestic development status and foreign experience, the approval system is a realistic choice at this stage in China. Second, immature investors and lack of short-selling mechanisms also plague the A-share market that cannot be ignored. ^[2] z