What is the decision analysis?
The decision analysis (DA) is the art and science of formal decision -making. DA is often used in decision -making on business decisions and uses specific methods and tools to identify and evaluate factors, risks and possible results to achieve optimal decisions. In the business, graphical representations of the decision are usually formally presented to the creators of the decisions and parties involved together with the prescribed steps. There are several types of decision-making models, including rational, intuitive and rational-iterative. Models of decision -making usually prescribe steps as defining decisions, identifying the required results, taking into account possible solutions, predicting the consequences of solutions and considering the probability that each solution will achieve the desired results.
The decision -making tree is a tree chart representing different decisions and their possible consequences. Typical decision -making is a percentage of a percentage that the decision will lead to a positive result and a percentage chance that the same rThe order will lead to a negative result. The tree shows a possible profit or loss associated with each possible result. The decision -making trees have only different ways and can grow very large and cumbersome due to exponential growth potential. The influence schemes are smaller and less detailed than the decision -making trees and are often selected as a compact alternative to the decision -making tree. The influence diagram is possible decisions, uncertainty and potential values associated with different decisions and compares values with the desired results.
The typical cycle of decision -making analysis contains four phases: determinist phase, probability phase, information phase and decision phase. In the determinist phase, the situation and the desired results are identified. During the probability phase, the likelihood of different risks and results is assigned to possible decisions. In the information phase, the results of the previous phases are used toDetermining whether it would be cost -effective to collect more information and reduce the uncertainty before continuing with the decision. The decision is made in the fourth and final phase.
The phrase “Analysis of the decision” was introduced in 1964 into the popular use of professor Stanford University University Ronald A. Howard. Proponents of the decision -making analysis promote its use because it can lead to increased economic prosperity and better strategic decisions. Scientists have explored the use of decision -making analysis for these purposes, such as achieving society without coercion and decision -making in life or death situations. Formal analysis of decision -making is used by individuals in such diverse professions as engineering, business, psychology, social sciences, economics, education and research.