Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?

Earthquake prediction is to predict the time, place and intensity of future earthquakes based on the understanding of earthquake laws. The basis of realizing earthquake prediction is to understand the physical process of earthquake breeding and the changes of crustal rock physical properties and mechanical state during this process.

Earthquake Prediction

Earthquake prediction is aimed at

For this reason, it should have a high degree of reliability, and inaccurate forecasting will cause unnecessary panic to residents and bring losses to society and the economy. But reliable prediction is very difficult, because human beings still don't know enough about the causes and laws of earthquakes. Seismologists cannot directly observe the interior of the earth, so there is a lack of observational data on the breeding process of earthquakes and the factors that affect this process. Therefore, despite the long-standing issue of earthquake prediction, progress has been slow. Scientists from various countries have made great efforts to this end, but so far cannot accurately predict earthquakes, and in the best case, they can only make very rough estimates.

Earthquakes are the result of tectonic activity, so the occurrence of earthquakes must be related to a certain tectonic environment. At the same time, an earthquake does not occur in isolation. It is only an event in the entire tectonic activity. Before this event, other events will occur. If you can confirm what happened before the earthquake, you can use it as a precursor to predict the earthquake. In addition, the occurrence of earthquakes is random. Accumulating

Earthquake prediction research began around the world and in China only in the 1950s and 1960s. China since 1966

The Law of the People's Republic of China on Earthquake Preparedness and Disaster Reduction clearly stipulates that the State implements a unified system for issuing earthquake prediction opinions.

Opinions on long-term and medium-term predictions of earthquakes nationwide are issued by the State Council. Earthquake prediction opinions within the administrative regions of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities shall be promptly issued by the people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in accordance with procedures prescribed by the State Council.

Except for publishing the research results of long-term and medium-term earthquake activity trends and relevant academic exchanges, no unit or individual may disseminate earthquake prediction opinions to the society. No unit or individual may disseminate the opinions of the earthquake forecast and its review results to the society.

The department in charge of earthquake work under the State Council and the local people's government at or above the county level who are responsible for managing the earthquake work shall, based on the results of the seismic monitoring information research, determine the location, time and

Macro phenomena before the earthquake

1. Macro anomaly observation and observation

(1) Site observation and mass observation. Site observation is generally undertaken by the district and county seismic work departments. After the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, most district and county earthquake work departments in China carried out macro anomaly site observation work. The mass observation can be divided into three levels: observation point, observation post and mass observation.

(2) The layout of observation points and selection of observation objects. Macro points are generally arranged at

Since the 1960s, Japan, the United States, the Soviet Union, and China have formulated national plans for earthquake prediction research.

The Japan Earthquake Prediction Research Group proposed a preliminary plan in 1962 and planned to collect basic data in a concentrated manner over a period of 10 years, including

Seismic geology. The earthquake occurred in the upper and middle crust, so the earthquake is considered to belong to

Animals are more sensitive to earthquakes, and many organs of certain animals feel particularly sensitive. It can know the occurrence of some disaster events in advance of humans. For example, jellyfish in the ocean can predict storms, and rats can avoid mine collapse or harmful gases in advance. As for sight, hearing, touch,

14 14 cases of earthquake prediction

The successful prediction of the Liaoning Haicheng earthquake in 1975;

Successful prediction of the Longling earthquake in Yunnan in 1976;

Successful prediction of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in Hebei;

The successful prediction of the 1976 Sichuan Songpan-Pingwu earthquake;

Qinghai Gonghe earthquake forecast in 1994;

Menglian 7.3 earthquake forecast in Yunnan in 1995;

1996 Lijiang Yunnan 7.0 magnitude earthquake prediction;

1996, 1997 Jiashi earthquake forecast in Xinjiang;

1998 Ningyun earthquake forecast of magnitude 6.2 in Yunnan;

Prediction of the magnitude 5.4 earthquake in Xiuyan-Haicheng, Liaoning in 1999;

2003 M6.8 earthquake forecast in Bachu-Jiashi area, Xinjiang;

2003 Dayao 6.1 earthquake forecast in Yunnan;

2003 Shandan and Minle 6.1 earthquakes in Gansu;

2007 Ningyun, Yunnan earthquake forecast of magnitude 6.4.

Earthquake prediction Tangshan earthquake prediction

"In December 1975 (more than half a year from the Tangshan earthquake), the Hebei Provincial Seismological and Geological Brigade's 1976 earthquake trend opinions were reported to the National Seismological Bureau: from Laoting in Hebei Province to the Jinzhou area of Aohan Banner in Liaoning Province and its Bohai Sea area in the southeast. Greater than a magnitude 6 earthquake. "

At the beginning of 1976 (less than half a year from the Tangshan earthquake), Yang Youzhen, the principal of the Tangshan Earthquake Office, integrated the observations of more than 40 seismic stations in Tangshan and made short-to-medium-term predictions at the Tangshan Earthquake Prevention Conference: within 50krn of Tangshan City in 1976 A magnitude 5-7 earthquake will occur in July, August or other months in the second half of the year. "

In May 1976 (3 months from the Tangshan earthquake), Yang Youzhen solemnly raised at the Jinan Earthquake Working Conference of the National Seismological Bureau: Tangshan may have a strong earthquake in the past two or three months! "

On July 6, 1976 (22d from the Tangshan earthquake), Ma Xirong, an earthquake station at the Majiagou Mine in Kailuan, officially made a short-term emergency forecast to the National Seismological Bureau and the Hebei Provincial Seismological Bureau. "

On July 7, 1976 (21d from the Tangshan earthquake), the Shanhaiguan No. 1 Middle School earthquake research team issued written forecast opinions to the seismic departments of Hebei Province, Tianjin City, and Tangshan: in mid-to-late July, the Bohai Sea and its coastal land had a magnitude of about 6 earthquake. "

"On July 14, 1976 (14d from the Tangshan earthquake), the Beijing Earthquake Team telegraphed to the National Seismological Bureau and seven major anomalies occurred. Deputy Director Zha Zhiyuan of the National Seismological Bureau hosted an exchange of experience in the survey of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangzhou-Bohai Group in Tangshan Yes. Tangshan Second Zhongtian Jinwu solemnly issued an earthquake alert: at the end of July 1976 and early August 1976, an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher may occur in Tangshan, and it may reach level 8. Jiangge Cang of Zhaogezhuang Mine Seismic Station officially at the Chamber of Commerce of Tangshan Earthquake Office Put forward: Tangshan is about to have a destructive earthquake of magnitude 5.

"On July 16, 1976 (12d from the Tangshan earthquake), Leting Hongwei Middle School issued a written earthquake prediction opinion to the Tangshan Monitoring Center of the Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province: Around July 23, there will be greater than 5 levels in the southwest direction near our district. Destructive earthquake occurred. "

"On July 22, 1976 (6d from the Tangshan earthquake), Wang Chengmin posted the first poster of his life in front of the director of the National Seismological Bureau. One page is the forecast of earthquake trends: the prediction opinions of the Beijing team, Tianjin team, and the Earth Institute. One page is the short-term impending forecast of the earthquake: the prediction opinions of the Hebei team, the Seismological Geological Brigade, the Information Bureau of the Oceanographic Bureau and the seismic survey team. The Shanhaiguan No.1 Middle School earthquake research team once again issued written prediction opinions to the seismic departments of Hebei Province, Tianjin City, and Tangshan Region. : In the middle and late July, there was a magnitude 6 earthquake on the Bohai Sea and its coastal land. " ^[3]