How Do I Calculate a Fertility Cycle?

The total fertility rate (in English: total fertility rate, TFR for short), also known as total fertility rate, refers to the average number of children per woman during the childbearing age of the country or region. This method of calculating fertility rate is not based on data from a real group of women who have given birth, because it involves waiting for birth to complete. In addition, this calculation model does not represent the number of children a woman has in a lifetime, but is based on the reproductive age of women. Internationally, the age is generally 15 to 44 or 49.

Total fertility rate

Total fertility is a composite indicator. In fact, no woman has given birth at an age-specific fertility rate during a 30-year childbearing period. Moreover, the age and fertility rate will gradually change and fluctuate over time. For example, women of the same age group in 1998 may tend to postpone childbirth compared to women aged 15-19 in 1980. They may reduce the total fertility rate in 1998, and when they start giving birth a few years later, the total fertility rate for that year will increase again. Therefore, annual fluctuations in total fertility may better reflect changes in women's reproductive age than changes in women's average number of children. The total fertility rate is a good indicator of how many children a woman has, so it is one of the most commonly used indicators of fertility.

The fertility rate is the ratio between the total number of births and the number of women of childbearing age in the corresponding population, also known as the fertility rate of women of childbearing age. Due to different analysis purposes, the fertility rate can be divided into

From the beginning of new China to the end of the 20th century

After the founding of New China, the total fertility rate of women experienced a rapid rise (1950-1957), a sharp decline (1958-1961), a sharp rebound (1962-1963), a high consolidation (1964-1971), and a gradual decline (1972-1990) , Hovering low (1991 to present) several stages. It has fallen below the level of population turnover and has long been below 2.1.

The continued decline of this indicator poses severe challenges to China's population and family planning policies. It mainly produces four inevitable socio-economic problems:

Total fertility genocide

The entire East Asian Confucian civilization zone, whether parasitic to China or Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, has been rapidly industrialized and modernized in a short period of time (30-50 years), and the material has quickly integrated with Western civilization. The culture has also been completely westernized, and traditional Confucian heirlooms have given birth. Culture is rapidly marginalizing, but the most important Christian fertility culture in the West is regarded as backward and despised like the Confucian fertility culture. As a result, the generation of fertility culture and the impact of modernization, the population of epochs at the same time appeared in the demonic China and democratized East Asian civilization circle that turned back to encourage fertility, but had no effect at all, China, East Asia The total fertility rate of the country and Singapore, which is below the intergenerational balance, has lasted for 20-40 years, and has hovered between 1.0-1.3 in the past 20 years. The collapse of the entire East Asian population has been unavoidable. If it lasts 8 generations to 2200 years, The number of East Asian births will fall from less than 18 million in 2010 to 248,000 per year, which is exactly one tenth of the number of births in the Philippines in 2010. The fertility rate in the Philippines is 3.15, which means the next generation of population. Increase by 50%. Excluding Indonesia, the Philippines alone will have 10 times the population of China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Total fertility decline

This has a strong impact on the competitive advantages of China's labor-intensive industries and enrollment in the education industry; the reduction of China's rural population has also directly caused the aging of the farming population, the problem of land abandonment and abandonment, which seriously affects our country's food security and then society. stable. ^[2]

Once entering the low fertility rate for 20 years, no country in the world can come out and return to 2.1. Japan, Germany, Northern Europe, Canada, Australia, and Europe, the most developed democratic nations in the world, have done everything to encourage fertility and free medical education for children. There is also a grant for developmental children, all to no avail. .
Only in the United States, a fertility rate of 2.0-2.1 has been restored. That is because the United States fell below 2.0 in the late 1970s and fell below 1.8 in the early 1980s. The simple reason lies ahead. The next generation has a smaller population than the previous generation. The population must decrease consumption must decrease the economy must shrink national strength must decline. Therefore, the US government took a look at the low birth rate and quickly became a cultural habit. Instead, it adopted a policy of encouraging birth, while Europe entered the quagmire after 10 years of delay, and the developed economies of East Asia, the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and China directly Step into the ultra-low fertility trap, unable to return to heaven.

Total fertility rate

The population of the elderly has increased sharply, and they are old before becoming rich. Entering an aging society at a speed that surpasses the speed of aging in developed countries will inevitably make the employed population overwhelmed by the burden of old-age security. Learning from the ancient famine years, throwing away the elderly in the wild to survive on their own, will be the mainstream means of providing for the elderly. The essence of providing for the elderly is the continuous supply of young labor to the elderly who are no longer the labor. Parents and elders are rearing up, and when they are young and mature, they are old-aged and have children. !! !! A scientific and sustainable childcare and pension system has been formed.

After industrialization and modernization, young people searched for job opportunities everywhere, and families of several generations could not be maintained. In the West, because the values of democracy and freedom did not deliberately destroy the fertility culture in the Middle Ages, the fertility rate naturally decreased slowly with the development of society, while China completely The absurd family planning theory without free debate was enforced immediately after being recognized by the authoritarian machine, which led to the collapse of the traditional fertility culture. The sole purpose of fertility education was to repeatedly inculcate "no births and fewer births"! !! !! And strengthen its theory with intimidating and punitive regulations.

Total fertility rate illegal abortion

The low total fertility rate has also spurred some families to give birth to a boy. They do nt want to raise more children but they have to take care of the old age and pass on the lineage. Therefore, the phenomenon of illegal abortion killing baby girls has an impact on human morality. Gender ratios that cause abnormalities appear.

Total fertility economic collapse

The essence of human economic development is to meet the increasing needs of mankind, but the Chinese economy is not serving the improvement of the Chinese people's living standards, but manufacturing to meet the needs of European and American consumers and domestic official and commercial privileges. Developed countries such as Europe, Japan, Australia, and Canada have entered the low fertility rate from 1970 and have not yet stepped out of the quagmire. China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan have entered the trap of ultra-low fertility and cannot extricate themselves. The devastating effects of low fertility have just begun At the time, due to life expectancy, the population aging first caused serious consumption weakness, which led to the pressure on enterprises to reduce production, which in turn affected labor employment, and also caused the waste of public infrastructure. Then the population collapse caused by the ultra-low fertility rate caused a rapid and catastrophic collapse of the population, leading to the inevitable huge overcapacity of the company, a large number of bankruptcies and layoffs, which in turn inhibited the consumption demand of the labor force, which was already declining, and the economy fell into a death cycle. .