What is Predictive Technology?

Forecasting technology is also known as "forecasting method". Prediction is based on past and present historical data of things, through certain scientific methods and logical reasoning, to make predictions and inferences about the future development of things, and to find the law of future development of things. Prediction studies not only the thing itself, but also its interaction and interaction with the environment. The forecasting process is an analysis process based on investigations or scientific experiments, and is referred to as predictive analysis for short. The scientific methods and means used in predictive analysis are collectively referred to as predictive technology. Prediction has been available since ancient times, and as a technology, it developed rapidly in the 1930s and 1940s. Forecasting is not only related to the survival and development of an enterprise or department, but also has become an area that a country must study to develop its national economy and science and technology. Forecasting success or failure will directly affect the development of the national economy and science and technology. : (1) is the basis of decision-making; (2) is an important basis for formulating a national economic and scientific and technological development plan; (3) can promote technology and product updates and enhance product competitiveness; (4) is important for good management means. The types of forecasts are divided into social, economic, scientific, technical, military and other forecasts according to content; short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts according to time; qualitative and quantitative forecasts according to methods. The prediction steps are: (1) determine the prediction target; (2) collect data and analyze the data; (3) establish a prediction model; (4) analyze and evaluate; (5) modify the predicted value. There are about 140 popular prediction technologies in the world. ^[1]

Forecasting Technology

Forecasting technology can be divided into two categories, as follows:

Determine the forecast purpose. Collect information. Choose the prediction method. Make actual predictions.

The 21st century is a new century. With the rapid development of information, biology, and new materials, the world economy and industrial structure are undergoing major changes. The trend of integration of science and technology and economy is increasing. Science and technology have increasingly become a decisive force in economic and social development. The development of high technology has become a nation The strong impetus for transforming the economic structure has become the national commanding heights.

Facing new opportunities and challenges, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and South Korea and other countries attach great importance to the formulation of science and technology development strategies and policies, and actively carry out forward-looking studies such as technology prediction and key technology selection, in order to grasp the future technology development trends and Impact on economic and social development, by identifying key R & D areas, building a national innovation system that is in line with future development. At the same time, some developing countries have also carried out technology forecasting studies. Based on the actual situation in their countries, they comprehensively analyze the advantages and disadvantages, determine the focus of research and development, and optimize the allocation and use of limited resources. .

China is a developing country. Under the influence of the rapid development of new technologies in the world, the economic structure is undergoing strategic adjustments. Some emerging industries have been or are emerging. Traditional industries are also facing the challenge of using high-tech to transform. After joining the WTO, China's high-tech industry will face more severe competition, and it is imperative to accelerate the technological upgrading of industries and enterprises. Therefore, it is a strategic issue related to the long-term development of China's science and technology, economy and society to carry out technical predictions based on China's current socioeconomic development needs, actively select and focus on breakthroughs in key national technologies, and strive to achieve industrialization.

Technical forecasting is a systematic study of scientific, technological, economic, and social development for a long period of time in the future. The goal is to identify strategic research areas and select the technology group that has the greatest contribution to economic and social benefits. By adopting scientific and standardized survey and research methods, the creative wisdom of experts from all aspects of society is integrated, forming strategic intelligence, and laying the foundation for correctly grasping the technological development direction of the country.

National technology forecast is an important means of national science and technology macro-decision. It provides support for formulating national science and technology policies and development strategies, selecting priority areas for development, and determining the direction of investment in research and development. At the same time, it provides comprehensive information for the general public to understand the future development trend of science and technology, and enhances the communication ability between governments, enterprises, research institutions, universities and the public, so as to form a vibrant technological innovation network and serve the national goals.