What Is the Expectations Hypothesis?

Expectancy theory is Expectancy theory proposed by Victor Froom, a well-known North American psychologist and behavior scientist, in 1964 in Work and Motivation. ^[1]

Expectation theory, also called "valence-means-expectation theory", is a theory of management psychology and behavioral science. This theory can be formulated as: agitating power = expectation value × potency. It was proposed by Victor H. Vroom, a well-known North American psychologist and behavior scientist, in "Work and Motivation" in 1964.

Fromm believes that the motivation or motivation for people to take an action depends on their

In the expectation mode, "personal effort" refers to the intensity of the initial act; "personal performance" refers to the individual's expected performance or externally determined performance standards. It is a first-level goal and an instrument for individuals to obtain organizational rewards; "organizational rewards" "Including internal rewards (such as giving heavy responsibility, providing development opportunities, etc.) and external rewards (such as salary increase, promotion, etc.), which are secondary goals and are tools for individuals to meet their personal needs;" personal needs "means that individuals have not yet The advantage need to be met is the internal basis for the external target to play an incentive role. The model shows that when using goals to motivate, individuals go through two levels of expectations and valence evaluation. Expectation refers to the probability that the individual will judge the success of the behavior based on the analysis of target difficulty and self-power. If this probability is appropriate, the individual will have the confidence and motivation to achieve the primary goal. Expectation II refers to the probability that an individual's performance will lead to organizational rewards based on analysis of past experience and situational conditions. If this probability is appropriate, individuals will further evaluate the value of organizational rewards for meeting individual needs. Because there are individual differences between people, the same goal will have different potencies and expectations for different people.

Expected theoretical contribution

1. Expectancy theory puts forward the theory that goal setting is consistent with personal needs. Expectation theory assumes that individuals are thoughtful and rational people. They have established beliefs and basic forecasts for the development of their lives and careers. Therefore, when analyzing the factors that motivate employees, we must look at what people want from the organization and how they can achieve their aspirations.

2. Expectancy theory is also one of the few quantitative analysis theories in motivation theory. This theory is not satisfied with a qualitative explanation of the problem, but also attaches great importance to quantitative analysis. It analyzes various contingency factors and correctly illustrates the choices people make among various possibilities. That is to say, people's behavior choice is usually the most effective, or people's actual behavior is the behavior choice with the greatest motivation. This is not only an important development of motivation theory, but also more operational in practice.

Expectation fallacy

1. Expected value is confused with the concept of titer. Expected value refers to the probability of people judging whether they have reached a certain goal and the possibility that this goal meets the demand, that is, "expected value = the possibility of achieving the goal + the possibility that the goal meets the need"; The value of personal needs, that is, it is not worth pursuing a goal value. The pursuit of a goal value is not worthwhile should include two aspects of evaluation criteria: First, whether the price paid for the pursuit of the goal is worth; the second is whether the degree of the goal to meet the needs is worth, which is the judgment and evaluation of the goal to meet the needs. This means that "titer value = the degree to which the target meets the need + the possibility that the target meets the need". From this, it can be seen that the expected value and the valence overlap with each other in the evaluation and judgment of "the possibility that the target meets the need." Unclear concepts and confusion inevitably lead to confusion in the practical application of the theory, such as narrative: "Promotions, salary increases and other things directly related to personal interests, it is easy to make people have higher expectations. Because receiving wages It is impossible to achieve the high expectations of the total amount and proportion of rewards. For those who fail to achieve it, the higher the expectations, the greater the disappointment, and the stronger the frustration. " The expectations described here include both the evaluation of the "possibility that the target meets the needs", but also the judgment of "the extent to which the targets meet the needs", so it is difficult to say whether the expectations in this statement refer to "expectations" or "effectiveness" In the final analysis, it is caused by the confusion of its concepts.

2. Lack of consideration of behavioral will processes. Emphasizing the unity of abilities, responsibilities, rights, and benefits, so as to inspire people's potential to the greatest extent and give play to people's initiative, this argument has long been a consensus of people and pushed it to use. However, in the expectation theory, only considerations of people's work expectations, such as people's ability to work, and consideration of people's work efficiency in terms of benefits from work, etc., are made. It can be seen that while the expectation theory pays attention to the possibility and necessity of people's actions and affects the activeness of work, it ignores people's moral processes such as moral awareness, responsibility awareness, rule awareness, obligation awareness, and superior awareness. The key role of work motivation.

3 The scope of application is limited. Expectancy theory is an incentive theory under the need to determine the target. Therefore, it is difficult to apply many requirements and targets. For example, it may be effective to use expectation theory in terms of job bonuses, but it is difficult to implement it in situations where there is a desire for promotion and the superior cannot give a positive answer in advance.

4 Oppose the basic role of training and education on employee initiative. Expectancy theory believes that a person's best motivation is that he believes that his efforts are likely to lead to good performance; good performance is likely to lead to a certain result; this result has a positive appeal to him. It can be inferred from this that this person has established in his heart some kind of relationship between today's behavior and future achievements and rewards. Therefore, in order to obtain the desired behavior, it is necessary to give affirmation, reward and praise in a timely manner when he exhibits this behavior, so that it will reappear. Similarly, in order to eliminate a certain behavior, it is necessary to give negative reinforcement when it is displayed, such as criticism and punishment. Therefore, the expectation theory should be related to the research results of conditioned reflection theory. But Froom clearly advocates: "Stimulating employee behavior with expected rewards or results, without blindly directing specific rewards to repeatedly induce specific behaviors in order to obtain a conditioned reflexive response." This is actually an exaggeration of the role of expectation theory in practical applications, negating the effectiveness of work training and work behavior norm education, and indirectly negating the importance of corporate culture education and implementation such as corporate culture. Facts have proved that the training of behavioral norms and the construction of cultural atmosphere are very necessary, such as our common training of behavioral norms for service employees, the ideological education of "customers as God", and the construction of relevant cultural atmospheres. It is a very effective means to stimulate service enthusiasm of service employees. ^[4]