What Is a House Price Index?

The house price index, the house sales price index, is a relative number that reflects the degree and trend of house sales price changes in a certain period. It is a form of percentage to reflect the rise and fall of house prices in different periods. Including the changes in sales prices of various types of housing, including commercial housing, public housing and private housing.

House price index

The house price index is the relative price of house sales price in a certain period. It is a relative number that reflects the degree and trend of house sales prices in a certain period.

Housing rental price index reflects housing rental in a certain period

Land transaction price index refers to real estate developers or other construction units

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said on Thursday that US house prices rose 1.8% from April to June. This is the largest single-quarter price increase since the fourth quarter of 2005, with a 2.2% increase in 2005. House prices rose 3% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

Calculated on a monthly basis, after adjusting for seasonal factors, house prices in June rose by 0.7% from May, which was higher than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected house prices to rise 0.6% month-on-month in June. In May, house prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month and the initial value rose by 0.8%.

At the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday indicated that sales of seasonally adjusted and annualized new homes in July were 372,000, which was the highest in April.

In addition, the National Real Estate Association (NAR) announced on Wednesday that second-hand home sales rose 2.3% in July at an annual rate of 4.47 million. This level is slightly lower than the 4.52 million households expected by analysts.

A series of data shows that real estate in the United States is growing steadily.

For the first time since the financial crisis, the U.S. real estate sector has become a bright lighthouse, shining brightly on the weak economic situation in the United States. On July 31, Standard & Poor's reported that its Case-Shiller 20-city index, after adjusting for seasonal factors, rose slightly by 0.9% in May from April and 1 The lowest valley of the month rose by 2.6%. ^[1]

On the surface, the rise in residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities has begun to slow down. Whether it is a newly built commercial house or a second-hand house, first-tier cities are at the forefront of the rise.

Rise in house prices across the country

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, the number of cities with newly-built commercial and second-hand housing prices rising in May was 65 and 64, a decrease of 2 from April. Among the cities with newly-added commodity housing prices rising month-on-month, Guilin rose the most, at 2.9%; among the cities with second-hand housing prices rising, Beijing had the highest increase, at 1.7%. Although from the point of view of the chain, the pace of house price growth has begun to slow down, but the year-on-year increase continues to surge. The number of newly-built commercial houses and second-hand houses increased by 69 year-on-year and 67 cities respectively, an increase of 1 and 3 from April.

The increase in first-tier cities is particularly obvious. Statistics show that

The picture shows the trend of China's housing price index

Guangzhou increased by 15.5% year-on-year, Beijing increased by 15.2% year-on-year, Shenzhen increased by 14% year-on-year, and Shanghai increased by 12.2% year-on-year. Among the second-hand housing indexes, the fastest year-on-year increase was also in the first-tier cities, with Beijing up 12.8% year-on-year, Guangzhou 9.9% year-on-year, Shanghai 9.2%, and Shenzhen 8.3%.

Liu Jianwei, a senior statistician in the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the data released, the rise in housing prices in May continued to slow down, mainly in two aspects: First, the number of cities with a ring-on-price increase decreased, and the number of cities with a ring-down decrease increase. Among them, the number of cities with new commodity housing and second-hand housing prices rising from the previous month decreased by 2 compared with April, and the number of cities with a decrease from the previous month increased by 1 and 2 respectively from April. Secondly, the increase from the previous month narrowed. Among them, there were 34 cities in which the price of newly-built commercial housing decreased month-on-month compared to April, and the prices of newly-built commercial housing in Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, and Chengdu all decreased by more than 0.6 percentage points; There are 30 cities. In May, the number of cities in which newly-built commercial and second-hand housing prices rose year-on-year was slightly higher than in April.

It should be noted that although the growth rate has slowed down from the previous month, the year-on-year growth rate has continued to rise. The average index of newly-built commercial housing has reached 5.65 year-on-year, and the value of second-hand housing has reached 3.05. Although the increase is moderate, the overall market expectation remains unchanged.

Policy implementation is key

Since May, land kings have appeared in major first- and second-tier cities across the country, and land premiums have risen significantly. Developers are bullish on land prices, which will have an impact on sales of new projects and expectations of buyers.

From the perspective of the national property market, housing prices tend to rise and fall. If the property market credit is not tightened in 2013, house prices will inevitably continue to rise. This also highlights the difficulty of regulation. Especially in the first-tier cities, although the price limit policy is relatively strict after the "National Five", the overall upward trend is still obvious. Property market regulation has entered a policy implementation period.

Liu Jianwei also pointed out that the number of cities where house prices rose month-on-month and year-on-year was still relatively large, and real estate market regulation still needed to continue to implement policies.

The relatively abundant capital of housing enterprises has increased the pressure on regulation. According to the data of the first quarter financial reports of A-share listed companies, the short-term funds of first- and second-tier real estate companies are relatively abundant, of which first-tier companies are particularly abundant. At the same time, overseas financing of real estate companies is still active, and there is still momentum for expansion. However, due to the shortage of supply, the flow rate has been greatly reduced. It is expected that the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land will remain positive in the future.

Xie Yifeng, president of the Asia-Pacific Urban Real Estate Association, also believes that if there is no follow-up policy to follow up and implement, house prices will continue to rise. Under the tone of central government not relaxing, the property market will usher in a new wave of house price games.

economic

Means are expected to fill

Compared with economic means, administrative measures such as purchase restriction, loan restriction, and sale restriction have the characteristics of quick effects and obvious effects. Therefore, they have been used many times in real estate regulation. However, the use of administrative measures to regulate has negative effects. Therefore, after the initial effect of the regulation, the opinions on increasing the proportion of economic instruments in the regulation policy have been repeatedly mentioned.

In March 2013, Hu Cunzhi, deputy minister of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said that the first thing to do in real estate regulation in 2013 under the premise of ensuring sufficient supply is to turn administrative means into economic means in a timely manner. Although the administrative measures are effective, the "side effects" are also large, and it is difficult to implement them at the same time. The second is that the control policies must be precisely targeted. The real estate market is relatively independent or a relatively isolated regional market. There are great differences between different cities, and there will be great differences in both house prices and supply. Therefore, the regulatory policies must be differentiated and targeted. .

Continued strict implementation of differentiated housing credit policies is considered an important means to continue curbing speculative investment in real estate.

On the evening of April 7, 2013, the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center and the Central Bank's Business Management Department issued a document stating that the down payment for the second home loan in Beijing was increased to 70%, and those with no homes still implemented the old standard of 60%. And adjust the interest rate for the second home loan.

Although the proportion of down payment for the second home loan in Beijing has only increased by 10%, the "dead power" of this first down payment is very strong. Most of the second home purchases are for improvement, and the requirements for housing area and location are relatively high. Choosing a second-hand house as a buyer to improve the housing has a great impact. Generally, the evaluation value of the second-hand house loan is 10% lower than the actual transaction value. According to the 70% down payment calculation, the buyer can only get about 20% of the loan. ^[2]