What is neglecting the basic rate?

neglect of the basic rate is the term used in cognitive psychology and decision science, which explains how human sensors often tend to ignore the background frequencies when implementing probability conclusions. For example, as far as the probability of a woman who has breast cancer is 1/10 000, but a test of 10,000 women gives 100 positive results, they will tend to overestimate the likelihood that each woman tests positive rather than considering the possibility of false positives. Rather than, provided that human beings are always rational thinkers, psychologists in this area are exploring ways that human judgments systematically differ from the axioms of probability theory. These deviations occur because people are often forced to perform rapid judgments based on modest information, D because the courts that are most adaptive or fast are not always the most right. It seems that our species has not been created by evolution to consistently produce mathematically accurateVěra based on a set of observed data.

The phenomenon of neglect of the basic rate is also considered part of a descriptive decision -making theory that studies how people really understand, unlike the normative decision -making theory that studies the best possible procedures for making the decision. Human reasons often ignore the basic rate, even if the information is easily accessible. This brought important results for social sciences and economics, among other things.

neglecting the basic rate is often mentioned in conjunction with Bayes' rule, which is a decision -making procedure that quickly results from the axiom of probability theory. This rule shows how to appropriately integrate the basic rates into new observations and provide updated probabilities in a consistent and accurate way. The deviation from the basic rates is therefore also referred to as the deviation from the Bayes rule.

AnotherAn example of neglecting the basic rate in the experimental context would be to present a group of test subjects of ten students and descriptions of their habits and personalities. The presentation is followed by the question of the average point of the point every student. This information is presented together with information about the basic rate of academic performance of students that should lead test items in their estimates, but not regularly. Due to the ten bad descriptions of students, the test subjects will assign GPA estimates out of line with basic rates. Due to ten positive descriptions, there is a distortion in the opposite direction. Probably these estimates of distorted probability occur every day in billions of human minds, with essentials for the way our society is operated.